Traders assign a 97.2% probability against a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026 because President Trump explicitly ruled out military force in January statements at Davos and subsequent remarks, shifting emphasis to negotiations over expanded U.S. military facilities through agreement with Denmark. Strong bipartisan congressional opposition, including Senate resolutions requiring approval for any action, combined with NATO allies' warnings that force against Denmark would fracture the alliance and trigger Article 5 complications, reinforced this restraint. European troop deployments to Greenland and Danish contingency planning further highlighted the prohibitive diplomatic and strategic costs. With roughly five months remaining in the year and no verified military preparations or escalatory signals, the consensus reflects the absence of viable pathways under current conditions, though abrupt policy reversals or unforeseen crises could theoretically alter the trajectory before December 31.