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美國會在2026年入侵格陵蘭嗎?

icon for 美國會在2026年入侵格陵蘭嗎?

美國會在2026年入侵格陵蘭嗎?

3% 機率
Polymarket

$1,420,039 交易量

3% 機率
Polymarket

$1,420,039 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The U.S. push for Greenland acquisition under the second Trump administration has centered on diplomatic negotiations, tariff threats, and a special envoy appointment rather than military mobilization, with President Trump explicitly ruling out force during January 2026 Davos remarks and subsequent NATO discussions. Denmark's firm sovereignty stance, Greenlandic self-government preferences, and shared NATO alliance commitments have channeled efforts toward economic leverage and potential framework deals on Arctic security cooperation instead of territorial seizure. Existing U.S. basing rights at Thule and the absence of any troop deployments or invasion preparations reinforce trader consensus against a 2026 military operation. Late-year developments such as failed negotiations or major Arctic escalation involving Russia or China remain the primary variables that could still alter probabilities before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,420,039
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The U.S. push for Greenland acquisition under the second Trump administration has centered on diplomatic negotiations, tariff threats, and a special envoy appointment rather than military mobilization, with President Trump explicitly ruling out force during January 2026 Davos remarks and subsequent NATO discussions. Denmark's firm sovereignty stance, Greenlandic self-government preferences, and shared NATO alliance commitments have channeled efforts toward economic leverage and potential framework deals on Arctic security cooperation instead of territorial seizure. Existing U.S. basing rights at Thule and the absence of any troop deployments or invasion preparations reinforce trader consensus against a 2026 military operation. Late-year developments such as failed negotiations or major Arctic escalation involving Russia or China remain the primary variables that could still alter probabilities before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,420,039
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美國會在2026年入侵格陵蘭嗎?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "美國會在2026年入侵格陵蘭嗎?" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 3¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 3% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美國會在2026年入侵格陵蘭嗎?" has generated $1.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美國會在2026年入侵格陵蘭嗎?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "美國會在2026年入侵格陵蘭嗎?" is "美國會在2026年入侵格陵蘭嗎?" at just 3%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "美國會在2026年入侵格陵蘭嗎?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.