Traders assign a 97% probability against a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026 because early-year threats of military force quickly shifted to diplomatic negotiations and expanded basing talks under the 1951 U.S.-Denmark defense agreement, with President Trump publicly ruling out force by late January. Ongoing closed-door discussions, bipartisan congressional resistance, NATO alliance strains, and Danish-Greenlandic rejection of sovereignty changes have kept any invasion off the table through mid-2026. The most recent major development was Trump's July reiteration of U.S. control preferences at the Ankara NATO summit amid continued framework talks. Realistic shifts could still arise from abrupt breakdown in those negotiations, renewed focus after the Iran conflict winds down, or unforeseen leadership or policy reversals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$1,420,039 交易量
$1,420,039 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$1,420,039 交易量
$1,420,039 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Traders assign a 97% probability against a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026 because early-year threats of military force quickly shifted to diplomatic negotiations and expanded basing talks under the 1951 U.S.-Denmark defense agreement, with President Trump publicly ruling out force by late January. Ongoing closed-door discussions, bipartisan congressional resistance, NATO alliance strains, and Danish-Greenlandic rejection of sovereignty changes have kept any invasion off the table through mid-2026. The most recent major development was Trump's July reiteration of U.S. control preferences at the Ankara NATO summit amid continued framework talks. Realistic shifts could still arise from abrupt breakdown in those negotiations, renewed focus after the Iran conflict winds down, or unforeseen leadership or policy reversals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 5, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
交易量
$1,420,039結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Traders assign a 97% probability against a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026 because early-year threats of military force quickly shifted to diplomatic negotiations and expanded basing talks under the 1951 U.S.-Denmark defense agreement, with President Trump publicly ruling out force by late January. Ongoing closed-door discussions, bipartisan congressional resistance, NATO alliance strains, and Danish-Greenlandic rejection of sovereignty changes have kept any invasion off the table through mid-2026. The most recent major development was Trump's July reiteration of U.S. control preferences at the Ankara NATO summit amid continued framework talks. Realistic shifts could still arise from abrupt breakdown in those negotiations, renewed focus after the Iran conflict winds down, or unforeseen leadership or policy reversals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,420,039結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97% probability against a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026 because early-year threats of military force quickly shifted to diplomatic negotiations and expanded basing talks under the 1951 U.S.-Denmark defense agreement, with President Trump publicly ruling out force by late January. Ongoing closed-door discussions, bipartisan congressional resistance, NATO alliance strains, and Danish-Greenlandic rejection of sovereignty changes have kept any invasion off the table through mid-2026. The most recent major development was Trump's July reiteration of U.S. control preferences at the Ankara NATO summit amid continued framework talks. Realistic shifts could still arise from abrupt breakdown in those negotiations, renewed focus after the Iran conflict winds down, or unforeseen leadership or policy reversals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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