Traders assign a 97.2% probability to “No” on a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026 because President Trump explicitly ruled out the use of military force in January 2026 after earlier tariff threats and contingency discussions, shifting instead to negotiations under the 1951 U.S.-Denmark defense agreement. Denmark, Greenlandic leaders, and NATO allies have rejected any sovereignty change, deploying limited European forces to the territory and emphasizing Greenland’s right to self-determination. Bipartisan congressional opposition and the economic risks of fracturing NATO have further constrained options. Ongoing trilateral talks focus on expanded U.S. military access and security cooperation rather than annexation. Late-year developments that could still alter the outcome include a breakdown in negotiations coinciding with new Arctic security crises or an unforeseen policy reversal, though no such indicators have emerged through early August.