The U.S. push for Greenland acquisition under the second Trump administration has centered on diplomatic negotiations, tariff threats, and a special envoy appointment rather than military mobilization, with President Trump explicitly ruling out force during January 2026 Davos remarks and subsequent NATO discussions. Denmark's firm sovereignty stance, Greenlandic self-government preferences, and shared NATO alliance commitments have channeled efforts toward economic leverage and potential framework deals on Arctic security cooperation instead of territorial seizure. Existing U.S. basing rights at Thule and the absence of any troop deployments or invasion preparations reinforce trader consensus against a 2026 military operation. Late-year developments such as failed negotiations or major Arctic escalation involving Russia or China remain the primary variables that could still alter probabilities before year-end.