President Trump's singular Easter Sunday Truth Social post on April 5, invoking "Praise be to Allah" as a sarcastic taunt toward Iran amid demands to open the Strait of Hormuz and threats of military action, explains the market's heavy tilt toward "No." That isolated remark, tied to heightened U.S.-Iran tensions including Supreme Leader Khamenei's recent statements, sparked controversy and resolved a prior Polymarket bet but has not recurred in the four days since. With just six days until the April 15 deadline and no new escalatory signals from Tehran or Trump administration diplomacy, traders' 93% implied probability on "No" reflects the low likelihood of repetition absent fresh geopolitical catalysts like airstrikes or negotiations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$223,774 交易量
$223,774 交易量
2026-04-15
是
$223,774 交易量
$223,774 交易量
2026-04-15
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly praises Allah between the time of its creation and April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying statement includes any remark by Donald Trump that expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence for the Islamic deity referred to as Allah. This can include direct praise (e.g., “Praise be to Allah”) or equivalent positive descriptions (“Allah is great”).
General neutrality or polite diplomatic language (e.g., “Yes, I posted about Allah”) will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation.
Any written, verbal, or recorded usage will qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.President Trump's singular Easter Sunday Truth Social post on April 5, invoking "Praise be to Allah" as a sarcastic taunt toward Iran amid demands to open the Strait of Hormuz and threats of military action, explains the market's heavy tilt toward "No." That isolated remark, tied to heightened U.S.-Iran tensions including Supreme Leader Khamenei's recent statements, sparked controversy and resolved a prior Polymarket bet but has not recurred in the four days since. With just six days until the April 15 deadline and no new escalatory signals from Tehran or Trump administration diplomacy, traders' 93% implied probability on "No" reflects the low likelihood of repetition absent fresh geopolitical catalysts like airstrikes or negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly praises Allah between the time of its creation and April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying statement includes any remark by Donald Trump that expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence for the Islamic deity referred to as Allah. This can include direct praise (e.g., “Praise be to Allah”) or equivalent positive descriptions (“Allah is great”).
General neutrality or polite diplomatic language (e.g., “Yes, I posted about Allah”) will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation.
Any written, verbal, or recorded usage will qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.
A qualifying statement includes any remark by Donald Trump that expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence for the Islamic deity referred to as Allah. This can include direct praise (e.g., “Praise be to Allah”) or equivalent positive descriptions (“Allah is great”).
General neutrality or polite diplomatic language (e.g., “Yes, I posted about Allah”) will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation.
Any written, verbal, or recorded usage will qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.
市場開放時間： Apr 6, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
交易量
$223,774結束日期
2026-04-15市場開放時間
Apr 6, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly praises Allah between the time of its creation and April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying statement includes any remark by Donald Trump that expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence for the Islamic deity referred to as Allah. This can include direct praise (e.g., “Praise be to Allah”) or equivalent positive descriptions (“Allah is great”).
General neutrality or polite diplomatic language (e.g., “Yes, I posted about Allah”) will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation.
Any written, verbal, or recorded usage will qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.President Trump's singular Easter Sunday Truth Social post on April 5, invoking "Praise be to Allah" as a sarcastic taunt toward Iran amid demands to open the Strait of Hormuz and threats of military action, explains the market's heavy tilt toward "No." That isolated remark, tied to heightened U.S.-Iran tensions including Supreme Leader Khamenei's recent statements, sparked controversy and resolved a prior Polymarket bet but has not recurred in the four days since. With just six days until the April 15 deadline and no new escalatory signals from Tehran or Trump administration diplomacy, traders' 93% implied probability on "No" reflects the low likelihood of repetition absent fresh geopolitical catalysts like airstrikes or negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly praises Allah between the time of its creation and April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying statement includes any remark by Donald Trump that expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence for the Islamic deity referred to as Allah. This can include direct praise (e.g., “Praise be to Allah”) or equivalent positive descriptions (“Allah is great”).
General neutrality or polite diplomatic language (e.g., “Yes, I posted about Allah”) will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation.
Any written, verbal, or recorded usage will qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.
A qualifying statement includes any remark by Donald Trump that expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence for the Islamic deity referred to as Allah. This can include direct praise (e.g., “Praise be to Allah”) or equivalent positive descriptions (“Allah is great”).
General neutrality or polite diplomatic language (e.g., “Yes, I posted about Allah”) will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation.
Any written, verbal, or recorded usage will qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.
交易量
$223,787結束日期
2026-04-15市場開放時間
Apr 6, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's singular Easter Sunday Truth Social post on April 5, invoking "Praise be to Allah" as a sarcastic taunt toward Iran amid demands to open the Strait of Hormuz and threats of military action, explains the market's heavy tilt toward "No." That isolated remark, tied to heightened U.S.-Iran tensions including Supreme Leader Khamenei's recent statements, sparked controversy and resolved a prior Polymarket bet but has not recurred in the four days since. With just six days until the April 15 deadline and no new escalatory signals from Tehran or Trump administration diplomacy, traders' 93% implied probability on "No" reflects the low likelihood of repetition absent fresh geopolitical catalysts like airstrikes or negotiations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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