Trader consensus implies a 97.9% probability that President Trump remains in office through April 30, driven by Republican majorities in the House and Senate, which make impeachment passage and two-thirds conviction vote virtually impossible absent a bipartisan revolt. No recent developments—such as health emergencies invoking the 25th Amendment, resignation announcements, or formal impeachment proceedings—have emerged since his January 20 inauguration, with Trump actively issuing executive orders on immigration and energy policy. This near-certain pricing reflects the short timeline and lack of catalysts, though late-breaking scandals, legal challenges, or unforeseen medical events could theoretically shift odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
NEW
$37,588 交易量
NEW
$37,588 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
是
NEW
$37,588 交易量
NEW
$37,588 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus implies a 97.9% probability that President Trump remains in office through April 30, driven by Republican majorities in the House and Senate, which make impeachment passage and two-thirds conviction vote virtually impossible absent a bipartisan revolt. No recent developments—such as health emergencies invoking the 25th Amendment, resignation announcements, or formal impeachment proceedings—have emerged since his January 20 inauguration, with Trump actively issuing executive orders on immigration and energy policy. This near-certain pricing reflects the short timeline and lack of catalysts, though late-breaking scandals, legal challenges, or unforeseen medical events could theoretically shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
交易量
$37,588結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus implies a 97.9% probability that President Trump remains in office through April 30, driven by Republican majorities in the House and Senate, which make impeachment passage and two-thirds conviction vote virtually impossible absent a bipartisan revolt. No recent developments—such as health emergencies invoking the 25th Amendment, resignation announcements, or formal impeachment proceedings—have emerged since his January 20 inauguration, with Trump actively issuing executive orders on immigration and energy policy. This near-certain pricing reflects the short timeline and lack of catalysts, though late-breaking scandals, legal challenges, or unforeseen medical events could theoretically shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$37,588結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 97.9% probability that President Trump remains in office through April 30, driven by Republican majorities in the House and Senate, which make impeachment passage and two-thirds conviction vote virtually impossible absent a bipartisan revolt. No recent developments—such as health emergencies invoking the 25th Amendment, resignation announcements, or formal impeachment proceedings—have emerged since his January 20 inauguration, with Trump actively issuing executive orders on immigration and energy policy. This near-certain pricing reflects the short timeline and lack of catalysts, though late-breaking scandals, legal challenges, or unforeseen medical events could theoretically shift odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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