Recent Congressional Budget Office projections show the federal deficit reaching $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026 and expanding further, driven by the net deficit-increasing effects of the 2025 reconciliation act, higher mandatory outlays, and net interest costs surpassing $1 trillion annually. Tariff revenues have provided some offset, yet enacted appropriations largely rejected deeper non-defense cuts proposed in the administration’s budget, while defense and border funding rose. Actual year-to-date shortfalls through May 2026 remain near $1.2 trillion, with limited evidence of structural improvement. Traders assign 72.4 percent probability to no reduction before 2027 because these dynamics, absent major new fiscal restraint, sustain elevated deficits relative to historical averages.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Recent Congressional Budget Office projections show the federal deficit reaching $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026 and expanding further, driven by the net deficit-increasing effects of the 2025 reconciliation act, higher mandatory outlays, and net interest costs surpassing $1 trillion annually. Tariff revenues have provided some offset, yet enacted appropriations largely rejected deeper non-defense cuts proposed in the administration’s budget, while defense and border funding rose. Actual year-to-date shortfalls through May 2026 remain near $1.2 trillion, with limited evidence of structural improvement. Traders assign 72.4 percent probability to no reduction before 2027 because these dynamics, absent major new fiscal restraint, sustain elevated deficits relative to historical averages.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
交易量
$2,272結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Recent Congressional Budget Office projections show the federal deficit reaching $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026 and expanding further, driven by the net deficit-increasing effects of the 2025 reconciliation act, higher mandatory outlays, and net interest costs surpassing $1 trillion annually. Tariff revenues have provided some offset, yet enacted appropriations largely rejected deeper non-defense cuts proposed in the administration’s budget, while defense and border funding rose. Actual year-to-date shortfalls through May 2026 remain near $1.2 trillion, with limited evidence of structural improvement. Traders assign 72.4 percent probability to no reduction before 2027 because these dynamics, absent major new fiscal restraint, sustain elevated deficits relative to historical averages.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
交易量
$2,272結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Congressional Budget Office projections show the federal deficit reaching $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026 and expanding further, driven by the net deficit-increasing effects of the 2025 reconciliation act, higher mandatory outlays, and net interest costs surpassing $1 trillion annually. Tariff revenues have provided some offset, yet enacted appropriations largely rejected deeper non-defense cuts proposed in the administration’s budget, while defense and border funding rose. Actual year-to-date shortfalls through May 2026 remain near $1.2 trillion, with limited evidence of structural improvement. Traders assign 72.4 percent probability to no reduction before 2027 because these dynamics, absent major new fiscal restraint, sustain elevated deficits relative to historical averages.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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