Preliminary data from Berkeley Earth and Copernicus ERA5 through April 11, 2026, show global surface air temperatures tracking as the third-hottest April on record, trailing only the record 2024 (hottest amid peak El Niño) and second-place 2025, which drives the market's 66.5% implied probability for third hottest. Current ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA—provide less atmospheric boost than prior El Niño-influenced years, tempering upside for first or second while sustained anthropogenic warming (now ~1.2–1.5°C above pre-industrial baselines) keeps it ahead of 2023 and earlier. Trader sentiment reflects low risk of slippage to fourth or lower (14%), with uncertainty in the month's second half hinging on daily observations; official NOAA and Copernicus reports expected early May will resolve rankings.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年4月1日、2日、3日有史以来最热？
2026年4月1日、2日、3日有史以来最热？
第三热 67%
第二热 17%
第4或更低 14%
有记录以来最热 5.5%
$70,545 交易量
$70,545 交易量
2026-05-10
有记录以来最热
5%
第二热
17%
第三热
67%
第4或更低
14%
第三热 67%
第二热 17%
第4或更低 14%
有记录以来最热 5.5%
$70,545 交易量
$70,545 交易量
2026-05-10
有记录以来最热
$7,352 交易量
5%
第二热
$21,052 交易量
17%
第三热
$14,434 交易量
67%
第4或更低
$27,708 交易量
14%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary data from Berkeley Earth and Copernicus ERA5 through April 11, 2026, show global surface air temperatures tracking as the third-hottest April on record, trailing only the record 2024 (hottest amid peak El Niño) and second-place 2025, which drives the market's 66.5% implied probability for third hottest. Current ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA—provide less atmospheric boost than prior El Niño-influenced years, tempering upside for first or second while sustained anthropogenic warming (now ~1.2–1.5°C above pre-industrial baselines) keeps it ahead of 2023 and earlier. Trader sentiment reflects low risk of slippage to fourth or lower (14%), with uncertainty in the month's second half hinging on daily observations; official NOAA and Copernicus reports expected early May will resolve rankings.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
交易量
$70,545结束日期
2026-05-10市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary data from Berkeley Earth and Copernicus ERA5 through April 11, 2026, show global surface air temperatures tracking as the third-hottest April on record, trailing only the record 2024 (hottest amid peak El Niño) and second-place 2025, which drives the market's 66.5% implied probability for third hottest. Current ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA—provide less atmospheric boost than prior El Niño-influenced years, tempering upside for first or second while sustained anthropogenic warming (now ~1.2–1.5°C above pre-industrial baselines) keeps it ahead of 2023 and earlier. Trader sentiment reflects low risk of slippage to fourth or lower (14%), with uncertainty in the month's second half hinging on daily observations; official NOAA and Copernicus reports expected early May will resolve rankings.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$70,545结束日期
2026-05-10市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary data from Berkeley Earth and Copernicus ERA5 through April 11, 2026, show global surface air temperatures tracking as the third-hottest April on record, trailing only the record 2024 (hottest amid peak El Niño) and second-place 2025, which drives the market's 66.5% implied probability for third hottest. Current ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA—provide less atmospheric boost than prior El Niño-influenced years, tempering upside for first or second while sustained anthropogenic warming (now ~1.2–1.5°C above pre-industrial baselines) keeps it ahead of 2023 and earlier. Trader sentiment reflects low risk of slippage to fourth or lower (14%), with uncertainty in the month's second half hinging on daily observations; official NOAA and Copernicus reports expected early May will resolve rankings.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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