Jerry Carl holds a commanding lead in the AL-01 Republican primary market due to his prior service as the district's U.S. representative, established name recognition, and campaign infrastructure ahead of the August 11, 2026 special primary. Alabama's mid-decade redistricting and related litigation invalidated the May 19 contest—where Carl finished first with roughly 40 percent—shifting focus to the new map and open seat created by Barry Moore's Senate bid. Recent polling and candidate filings underscore Carl's edge over state Rep. Rhett Marques and lesser-known challengers, reflecting trader assessments of fundraising, voter familiarity, and primary dynamics in this solidly Republican district.