Jerry Carl holds a commanding lead in the AL-01 Republican primary market due to his prior service as the district’s U.S. representative from 2021 to 2025 and strong performance in the May 19 non-binding “ghost primary,” where he captured roughly 40 percent to Rhett Marques’s 31 percent. Marques, a state representative, benefits from earlier fundraising advantages and geographic support in parts of the district but trails in recent polling and vote tallies. The remaining candidates receive negligible backing. Alabama’s redistricting litigation and the scheduled August 11 special primary introduce some uncertainty, keeping trader consensus from reaching near-certainty levels despite Carl’s established edge.