**Jerry Carl holds a strong lead in the AL-01 Republican primary market at 75% implied probability, with Rhett Marques at 24.5% and all other candidates below 4%.** Redistricting litigation and a May 2026 Supreme Court ruling led Alabama to revert toward prior congressional maps, prompting Governor Ivey to schedule special Republican primaries on August 11 for affected districts including AL-01. In the May 19 “ghost primary” under the prior lines, Carl (a former two-term representative for the district) led Marques 40–31%, establishing early name recognition and geographic strength. Marques subsequently switched to the AL-02 special primary, removing the main challenger and consolidating Carl’s position among the remaining field (Lucas Burger, John Mills, Austin Sidwell). Earlier polling and fundraising reports showed a competitive race before the map and candidate shifts, but traders have adjusted sharply toward Carl as the presumptive nominee in the revised AL-01 contest. Resolution will follow certification of the August special primary results.