Jerry Carl leads the AL-01 Republican primary field at 74% implied probability due to his prior service representing the district, strong name recognition among South Alabama voters, and alignment with the new post-redistricting map that emphasizes Mobile and Baldwin counties. A May 19 “ghost primary” under the prior boundaries showed Carl ahead of Rhett Marques by roughly nine points, though those results were invalidated amid ongoing litigation. Marques, who outraised Carl in late 2025, shifted to the 2nd District, narrowing the August 11 contest to four candidates including Carl. The remaining challengers register minimal support, reflecting limited fundraising and visibility relative to Carl’s established base. Traders appear to price in these structural and geographic advantages ahead of the special primary.