Alabama's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles and the August 11, 2026, primary where Jerry Carl secured the nomination with roughly 75% of the vote. The district covers Mobile, Baldwin, and surrounding conservative-leaning counties, where voter registration and past election results favor Republican nominees by wide margins. Democratic nominee Clyde Jones faces structural headwinds in a seat that delivered over 78% for the prior Republican incumbent in 2024. Trader consensus at 94.5% Republican probability aligns with these baseline patterns. Late developments such as a major scandal, candidate withdrawal, or unprecedented national political shift could narrow the gap, though such scenarios remain low-probability given current candidate positioning and district demographics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$40,534 交易量
$40,534 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
95%
民主党
3%
$40,534 交易量
$40,534 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$19,201 交易量
95%
民主党
$21,332 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Alabama's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles and the August 11, 2026, primary where Jerry Carl secured the nomination with roughly 75% of the vote. The district covers Mobile, Baldwin, and surrounding conservative-leaning counties, where voter registration and past election results favor Republican nominees by wide margins. Democratic nominee Clyde Jones faces structural headwinds in a seat that delivered over 78% for the prior Republican incumbent in 2024. Trader consensus at 94.5% Republican probability aligns with these baseline patterns. Late developments such as a major scandal, candidate withdrawal, or unprecedented national political shift could narrow the gap, though such scenarios remain low-probability given current candidate positioning and district demographics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:53 PM ET
交易量
$40,534结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:53 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Alabama's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles and the August 11, 2026, primary where Jerry Carl secured the nomination with roughly 75% of the vote. The district covers Mobile, Baldwin, and surrounding conservative-leaning counties, where voter registration and past election results favor Republican nominees by wide margins. Democratic nominee Clyde Jones faces structural headwinds in a seat that delivered over 78% for the prior Republican incumbent in 2024. Trader consensus at 94.5% Republican probability aligns with these baseline patterns. Late developments such as a major scandal, candidate withdrawal, or unprecedented national political shift could narrow the gap, though such scenarios remain low-probability given current candidate positioning and district demographics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$40,534结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:53 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Alabama's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles and the August 11, 2026, primary where Jerry Carl secured the nomination with roughly 75% of the vote. The district covers Mobile, Baldwin, and surrounding conservative-leaning counties, where voter registration and past election results favor Republican nominees by wide margins. Democratic nominee Clyde Jones faces structural headwinds in a seat that delivered over 78% for the prior Republican incumbent in 2024. Trader consensus at 94.5% Republican probability aligns with these baseline patterns. Late developments such as a major scandal, candidate withdrawal, or unprecedented national political shift could narrow the gap, though such scenarios remain low-probability given current candidate positioning and district demographics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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