The redrawn boundaries for Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District, finalized in May 2026 amid ongoing litigation, represent the primary driver behind the Republican Party’s 74.5% implied probability in this special general election market. The new map shifted the district’s partisan leanings, positioning the Republican nominee—Hampton Harris, who advanced unopposed after the May primary was canceled—against Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures in a November 3, 2026 contest. Recent qualification filings and August primary scheduling have reinforced trader focus on these structural changes rather than candidate-specific polling, with the Republican edge reflecting historical performance in similarly configured Alabama districts and limited Democratic crossover support. Uncertainty around final court rulings on the map remains the main variable that could narrow the gap before the general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于AL-02 House Election Winner
AL-02 House Election Winner
$34,919 交易量
$34,919 交易量
2026-11-03
Republican Party
68%
Democratic Party
32%
$34,919 交易量
$34,919 交易量
2026-11-03
Republican Party
$18,449 交易量
68%
Democratic Party
$16,471 交易量
32%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The redrawn boundaries for Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District, finalized in May 2026 amid ongoing litigation, represent the primary driver behind the Republican Party’s 74.5% implied probability in this special general election market. The new map shifted the district’s partisan leanings, positioning the Republican nominee—Hampton Harris, who advanced unopposed after the May primary was canceled—against Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures in a November 3, 2026 contest. Recent qualification filings and August primary scheduling have reinforced trader focus on these structural changes rather than candidate-specific polling, with the Republican edge reflecting historical performance in similarly configured Alabama districts and limited Democratic crossover support. Uncertainty around final court rulings on the map remains the main variable that could narrow the gap before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$34,919结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The redrawn boundaries for Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District, finalized in May 2026 amid ongoing litigation, represent the primary driver behind the Republican Party’s 74.5% implied probability in this special general election market. The new map shifted the district’s partisan leanings, positioning the Republican nominee—Hampton Harris, who advanced unopposed after the May primary was canceled—against Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures in a November 3, 2026 contest. Recent qualification filings and August primary scheduling have reinforced trader focus on these structural changes rather than candidate-specific polling, with the Republican edge reflecting historical performance in similarly configured Alabama districts and limited Democratic crossover support. Uncertainty around final court rulings on the map remains the main variable that could narrow the gap before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$34,919结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The redrawn boundaries for Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District, finalized in May 2026 amid ongoing litigation, represent the primary driver behind the Republican Party’s 74.5% implied probability in this special general election market. The new map shifted the district’s partisan leanings, positioning the Republican nominee—Hampton Harris, who advanced unopposed after the May primary was canceled—against Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures in a November 3, 2026 contest. Recent qualification filings and August primary scheduling have reinforced trader focus on these structural changes rather than candidate-specific polling, with the Republican edge reflecting historical performance in similarly configured Alabama districts and limited Democratic crossover support. Uncertainty around final court rulings on the map remains the main variable that could narrow the gap before the general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题