**Republican Party holds an 88.5% implied probability in the WI-06 general election on November 3, 2026, compared with 11.5% for Democrats.** The district’s consistent Republican lean, driven by its east-central Wisconsin geography encompassing Fond du Lac, Oshkosh, and Sheboygan counties, underpins this positioning. Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman, first elected in 2014 and reelected with 61% in 2024, faces no primary opposition and benefits from incumbency advantages in a seat rated solid Republican by analysts. Democratic primary voters chose between Amanda Bell and Brad Smith on August 11, 2026, while independents Mike Thurow and Elizabeth Fitzgibbon, plus Green Party candidate Matthew Arndt, also appear on the November ballot. Limited polling and historical margins show Republican dominance, with recent claims of narrowing gaps tied to independent messaging remaining unverified across broader data. Traders price in these structural factors and the absence of major recent disruptions capable of altering the outcome before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$24,813 交易量
$24,813 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
89%
民主党
12%
$24,813 交易量
$24,813 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$13,915 交易量
89%
民主党
$10,898 交易量
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican Party holds an 88.5% implied probability in the WI-06 general election on November 3, 2026, compared with 11.5% for Democrats.**
The district’s consistent Republican lean, driven by its east-central Wisconsin geography encompassing Fond du Lac, Oshkosh, and Sheboygan counties, underpins this positioning. Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman, first elected in 2014 and reelected with 61% in 2024, faces no primary opposition and benefits from incumbency advantages in a seat rated solid Republican by analysts. Democratic primary voters chose between Amanda Bell and Brad Smith on August 11, 2026, while independents Mike Thurow and Elizabeth Fitzgibbon, plus Green Party candidate Matthew Arndt, also appear on the November ballot. Limited polling and historical margins show Republican dominance, with recent claims of narrowing gaps tied to independent messaging remaining unverified across broader data. Traders price in these structural factors and the absence of major recent disruptions capable of altering the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$24,813结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican Party holds an 88.5% implied probability in the WI-06 general election on November 3, 2026, compared with 11.5% for Democrats.**
The district’s consistent Republican lean, driven by its east-central Wisconsin geography encompassing Fond du Lac, Oshkosh, and Sheboygan counties, underpins this positioning. Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman, first elected in 2014 and reelected with 61% in 2024, faces no primary opposition and benefits from incumbency advantages in a seat rated solid Republican by analysts. Democratic primary voters chose between Amanda Bell and Brad Smith on August 11, 2026, while independents Mike Thurow and Elizabeth Fitzgibbon, plus Green Party candidate Matthew Arndt, also appear on the November ballot. Limited polling and historical margins show Republican dominance, with recent claims of narrowing gaps tied to independent messaging remaining unverified across broader data. Traders price in these structural factors and the absence of major recent disruptions capable of altering the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$24,813结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican Party holds an 88.5% implied probability in the WI-06 general election on November 3, 2026, compared with 11.5% for Democrats.** The district’s consistent Republican lean, driven by its east-central Wisconsin geography encompassing Fond du Lac, Oshkosh, and Sheboygan counties, underpins this positioning. Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman, first elected in 2014 and reelected with 61% in 2024, faces no primary opposition and benefits from incumbency advantages in a seat rated solid Republican by analysts. Democratic primary voters chose between Amanda Bell and Brad Smith on August 11, 2026, while independents Mike Thurow and Elizabeth Fitzgibbon, plus Green Party candidate Matthew Arndt, also appear on the November ballot. Limited polling and historical margins show Republican dominance, with recent claims of narrowing gaps tied to independent messaging remaining unverified across broader data. Traders price in these structural factors and the absence of major recent disruptions capable of altering the outcome before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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