**Trader consensus on 10-12 Democratic House incumbents losing primaries in 2026 reflects a wave of primary defeats driven by progressive challenges, generational turnover, and intra-party ideological tensions.** Multiple safe-seat Democrats fell to younger, left-leaning opponents backed by figures such as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Sen. Bernie Sanders, with notable losses including Reps. Dan Goldman (NY-10), Adriano Espaillat (NY-13), Diana DeGette (CO-1), Shri Thanedar (MI-13), and others in New York, Colorado, Michigan, and Texas. These outcomes stem from voter pushback on issues like foreign policy positions (particularly regarding Israel/Gaza), corporate PAC funding, constituent services, and calls for fresher leadership among long-tenured members. Redistricting in Texas also forced some Democratic matchups, contributing additional defeats. By mid-September 2026, reports indicated at least six to seven Democratic primary losses—already exceeding typical postwar averages—with dozens of battleground primaries (including in California, Massachusetts, Hawaii, and Connecticut) still shaping the final tally. The 10-12 range captures this elevated but historically contained turnover, consistent with patterns in high-turnover cycles like 1992 or 2012. A lower total (under 10) could result if remaining incumbents, such as those in late-summer or fall runoffs, hold on through superior fundraising or district loyalty. A higher count (13+) would require additional upsets in competitive races against figures like Reps. John Larson, Ed Case, or others facing progressive or generational challengers. The market pricing embeds the observed momentum from the 2026 primary calendar while accounting for the structural resilience most incumbents retain.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$53,579 交易量
$53,579 交易量
10-12
94%
13-15
7%
$53,579 交易量
$53,579 交易量
10-12
$11,327 交易量
94%
13-15
$5,247 交易量
7%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus on 10-12 Democratic House incumbents losing primaries in 2026 reflects a wave of primary defeats driven by progressive challenges, generational turnover, and intra-party ideological tensions.** Multiple safe-seat Democrats fell to younger, left-leaning opponents backed by figures such as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Sen. Bernie Sanders, with notable losses including Reps. Dan Goldman (NY-10), Adriano Espaillat (NY-13), Diana DeGette (CO-1), Shri Thanedar (MI-13), and others in New York, Colorado, Michigan, and Texas. These outcomes stem from voter pushback on issues like foreign policy positions (particularly regarding Israel/Gaza), corporate PAC funding, constituent services, and calls for fresher leadership among long-tenured members.
Redistricting in Texas also forced some Democratic matchups, contributing additional defeats. By mid-September 2026, reports indicated at least six to seven Democratic primary losses—already exceeding typical postwar averages—with dozens of battleground primaries (including in California, Massachusetts, Hawaii, and Connecticut) still shaping the final tally. The 10-12 range captures this elevated but historically contained turnover, consistent with patterns in high-turnover cycles like 1992 or 2012.
A lower total (under 10) could result if remaining incumbents, such as those in late-summer or fall runoffs, hold on through superior fundraising or district loyalty. A higher count (13+) would require additional upsets in competitive races against figures like Reps. John Larson, Ed Case, or others facing progressive or generational challengers. The market pricing embeds the observed momentum from the 2026 primary calendar while accounting for the structural resilience most incumbents retain.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
市场开放时间： Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
交易量
$53,579市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETThe 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus on 10-12 Democratic House incumbents losing primaries in 2026 reflects a wave of primary defeats driven by progressive challenges, generational turnover, and intra-party ideological tensions.** Multiple safe-seat Democrats fell to younger, left-leaning opponents backed by figures such as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Sen. Bernie Sanders, with notable losses including Reps. Dan Goldman (NY-10), Adriano Espaillat (NY-13), Diana DeGette (CO-1), Shri Thanedar (MI-13), and others in New York, Colorado, Michigan, and Texas. These outcomes stem from voter pushback on issues like foreign policy positions (particularly regarding Israel/Gaza), corporate PAC funding, constituent services, and calls for fresher leadership among long-tenured members.
Redistricting in Texas also forced some Democratic matchups, contributing additional defeats. By mid-September 2026, reports indicated at least six to seven Democratic primary losses—already exceeding typical postwar averages—with dozens of battleground primaries (including in California, Massachusetts, Hawaii, and Connecticut) still shaping the final tally. The 10-12 range captures this elevated but historically contained turnover, consistent with patterns in high-turnover cycles like 1992 or 2012.
A lower total (under 10) could result if remaining incumbents, such as those in late-summer or fall runoffs, hold on through superior fundraising or district loyalty. A higher count (13+) would require additional upsets in competitive races against figures like Reps. John Larson, Ed Case, or others facing progressive or generational challengers. The market pricing embeds the observed momentum from the 2026 primary calendar while accounting for the structural resilience most incumbents retain.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
交易量
$53,579市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET**Trader consensus on 10-12 Democratic House incumbents losing primaries in 2026 reflects a wave of primary defeats driven by progressive challenges, generational turnover, and intra-party ideological tensions.** Multiple safe-seat Democrats fell to younger, left-leaning opponents backed by figures such as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Sen. Bernie Sanders, with notable losses including Reps. Dan Goldman (NY-10), Adriano Espaillat (NY-13), Diana DeGette (CO-1), Shri Thanedar (MI-13), and others in New York, Colorado, Michigan, and Texas. These outcomes stem from voter pushback on issues like foreign policy positions (particularly regarding Israel/Gaza), corporate PAC funding, constituent services, and calls for fresher leadership among long-tenured members. Redistricting in Texas also forced some Democratic matchups, contributing additional defeats. By mid-September 2026, reports indicated at least six to seven Democratic primary losses—already exceeding typical postwar averages—with dozens of battleground primaries (including in California, Massachusetts, Hawaii, and Connecticut) still shaping the final tally. The 10-12 range captures this elevated but historically contained turnover, consistent with patterns in high-turnover cycles like 1992 or 2012. A lower total (under 10) could result if remaining incumbents, such as those in late-summer or fall runoffs, hold on through superior fundraising or district loyalty. A higher count (13+) would require additional upsets in competitive races against figures like Reps. John Larson, Ed Case, or others facing progressive or generational challengers. The market pricing embeds the observed momentum from the 2026 primary calendar while accounting for the structural resilience most incumbents retain.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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