Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking as the top AI model on May 1 under style control off on the lmarena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard, driven by its commanding Arena Elo score of around 1502—backed by over 22,000 user votes in blind preference battles—outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview by 9 points and even newer sibling Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking. This positioning stems from Anthropic's early 2026 Opus 4.6 release, which excelled in reasoning, coding, and creative tasks per crowd-sourced evaluations, maintaining dominance through April despite user reports of real-world nerfs. While the lead appears unassailable with vast vote volume reflecting skin-in-the-game wisdom, realistic challenges include leaderboard volatility from fresh battles favoring low-vote contenders or an 11th-hour model preview from rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.x series before the May 1 snapshot.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于claude-opus-4-6-thinking 100.0%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
claude-opus-4-7 <1%
muse-spark <1%
$51,989 交易量
$51,989 交易量
2026-05-01
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Yes
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
No
claude-opus-4-7
No
muse-spark
No
Other
No
claude-opus-4-6
No
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
No
gemini-3-pro
No
gpt-5.4-high
No
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 100.0%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
claude-opus-4-7 <1%
muse-spark <1%
$51,989 交易量
$51,989 交易量
2026-05-01
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$27,337 交易量
Yes
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$17,394 交易量
No
claude-opus-4-7
$875 交易量
No
muse-spark
$823 交易量
No
Other
$1,820 交易量
No
claude-opus-4-6
$1,260 交易量
No
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$769 交易量
No
gemini-3-pro
$839 交易量
No
gpt-5.4-high
$872 交易量
No
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking as the top AI model on May 1 under style control off on the lmarena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard, driven by its commanding Arena Elo score of around 1502—backed by over 22,000 user votes in blind preference battles—outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview by 9 points and even newer sibling Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking. This positioning stems from Anthropic's early 2026 Opus 4.6 release, which excelled in reasoning, coding, and creative tasks per crowd-sourced evaluations, maintaining dominance through April despite user reports of real-world nerfs. While the lead appears unassailable with vast vote volume reflecting skin-in-the-game wisdom, realistic challenges include leaderboard volatility from fresh battles favoring low-vote contenders or an 11th-hour model preview from rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.x series before the May 1 snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
交易量
$51,989结束日期
2026-05-01市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking as the top AI model on May 1 under style control off on the lmarena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard, driven by its commanding Arena Elo score of around 1502—backed by over 22,000 user votes in blind preference battles—outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview by 9 points and even newer sibling Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking. This positioning stems from Anthropic's early 2026 Opus 4.6 release, which excelled in reasoning, coding, and creative tasks per crowd-sourced evaluations, maintaining dominance through April despite user reports of real-world nerfs. While the lead appears unassailable with vast vote volume reflecting skin-in-the-game wisdom, realistic challenges include leaderboard volatility from fresh battles favoring low-vote contenders or an 11th-hour model preview from rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.x series before the May 1 snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$51,989结束日期
2026-05-01市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking as the top AI model on May 1 under style control off on the lmarena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard, driven by its commanding Arena Elo score of around 1502—backed by over 22,000 user votes in blind preference battles—outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview by 9 points and even newer sibling Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking. This positioning stems from Anthropic's early 2026 Opus 4.6 release, which excelled in reasoning, coding, and creative tasks per crowd-sourced evaluations, maintaining dominance through April despite user reports of real-world nerfs. While the lead appears unassailable with vast vote volume reflecting skin-in-the-game wisdom, realistic challenges include leaderboard volatility from fresh battles favoring low-vote contenders or an 11th-hour model preview from rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.x series before the May 1 snapshot.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题