Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) faces a competitive top-two primary challenge from well-funded Eric Jones (D) in California's 4th Congressional District on June 2, shaping trader consensus amid a fragmented field of six Republicans and one independent. Late March fundraising showed Jones raising $3.25 million versus Thompson's $2.99 million, though Thompson holds $2.56 million cash on hand to Jones's $1.45 million; endorsements split with the Democratic Party of California backing Thompson and Our Revolution supporting Jones. Recent redistricting via Proposition 50 trimmed the district's D+8 partisan lean slightly, but no public polling exists. GOP vote-splitting likely ensures Democratic dominance in advancement, with the general rated Solid Democratic by forecasters.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$22,099 交易量
2026-06-02
迈克·汤普森
99%
Eric Jones
90%
特雷弗·梅雷尔
12%
希斯·富克森
11%
约翰·韦斯利·泰勒
9%
莎伦·布朗
6%
Mandy Ghusar
6%
劳丽·麦肯齐
5%
$22,099 交易量
迈克·汤普森
$6,602 交易量
99%
Eric Jones
$4,475 交易量
90%
特雷弗·梅雷尔
$6,994 交易量
12%
希斯·富克森
$315 交易量
11%
约翰·韦斯利·泰勒
$670 交易量
9%
莎伦·布朗
$1,605 交易量
6%
Mandy Ghusar
$728 交易量
6%
劳丽·麦肯齐
$710 交易量
5%
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) faces a competitive top-two primary challenge from well-funded Eric Jones (D) in California's 4th Congressional District on June 2, shaping trader consensus amid a fragmented field of six Republicans and one independent. Late March fundraising showed Jones raising $3.25 million versus Thompson's $2.99 million, though Thompson holds $2.56 million cash on hand to Jones's $1.45 million; endorsements split with the Democratic Party of California backing Thompson and Our Revolution supporting Jones. Recent redistricting via Proposition 50 trimmed the district's D+8 partisan lean slightly, but no public polling exists. GOP vote-splitting likely ensures Democratic dominance in advancement, with the general rated Solid Democratic by forecasters.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市场开放时间： Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
交易量
$22,099结束日期
2026-06-02市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) faces a competitive top-two primary challenge from well-funded Eric Jones (D) in California's 4th Congressional District on June 2, shaping trader consensus amid a fragmented field of six Republicans and one independent. Late March fundraising showed Jones raising $3.25 million versus Thompson's $2.99 million, though Thompson holds $2.56 million cash on hand to Jones's $1.45 million; endorsements split with the Democratic Party of California backing Thompson and Our Revolution supporting Jones. Recent redistricting via Proposition 50 trimmed the district's D+8 partisan lean slightly, but no public polling exists. GOP vote-splitting likely ensures Democratic dominance in advancement, with the general rated Solid Democratic by forecasters.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$22,099结束日期
2026-06-02市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) faces a competitive top-two primary challenge from well-funded Eric Jones (D) in California's 4th Congressional District on June 2, shaping trader consensus amid a fragmented field of six Republicans and one independent. Late March fundraising showed Jones raising $3.25 million versus Thompson's $2.99 million, though Thompson holds $2.56 million cash on hand to Jones's $1.45 million; endorsements split with the Democratic Party of California backing Thompson and Our Revolution supporting Jones. Recent redistricting via Proposition 50 trimmed the district's D+8 partisan lean slightly, but no public polling exists. GOP vote-splitting likely ensures Democratic dominance in advancement, with the general rated Solid Democratic by forecasters.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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