Democratic incumbent Mike Thompson’s strong performance in the June 2, 2026, top-two primary, where he advanced comfortably ahead of Republican challengers, has reinforced trader expectations for the November general election in California’s 4th district. The seat carries a pronounced Democratic partisan lean, reflected in voter registration advantages and consistent historical margins exceeding 30 points. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic following redistricting, with no significant late developments or credible Republican momentum emerging in the past month. While a national Republican wave, Thompson retirement, or major unforeseen event could theoretically alter the outcome, the current market consensus of 95.5% for Democrats aligns with the district’s structural and recent electoral fundamentals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
96%
共和党
5%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$3,125 交易量
96%
共和党
$2,527 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Mike Thompson’s strong performance in the June 2, 2026, top-two primary, where he advanced comfortably ahead of Republican challengers, has reinforced trader expectations for the November general election in California’s 4th district. The seat carries a pronounced Democratic partisan lean, reflected in voter registration advantages and consistent historical margins exceeding 30 points. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic following redistricting, with no significant late developments or credible Republican momentum emerging in the past month. While a national Republican wave, Thompson retirement, or major unforeseen event could theoretically alter the outcome, the current market consensus of 95.5% for Democrats aligns with the district’s structural and recent electoral fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$5,652结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Mike Thompson’s strong performance in the June 2, 2026, top-two primary, where he advanced comfortably ahead of Republican challengers, has reinforced trader expectations for the November general election in California’s 4th district. The seat carries a pronounced Democratic partisan lean, reflected in voter registration advantages and consistent historical margins exceeding 30 points. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic following redistricting, with no significant late developments or credible Republican momentum emerging in the past month. While a national Republican wave, Thompson retirement, or major unforeseen event could theoretically alter the outcome, the current market consensus of 95.5% for Democrats aligns with the district’s structural and recent electoral fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$5,652结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Mike Thompson’s strong performance in the June 2, 2026, top-two primary, where he advanced comfortably ahead of Republican challengers, has reinforced trader expectations for the November general election in California’s 4th district. The seat carries a pronounced Democratic partisan lean, reflected in voter registration advantages and consistent historical margins exceeding 30 points. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic following redistricting, with no significant late developments or credible Republican momentum emerging in the past month. While a national Republican wave, Thompson retirement, or major unforeseen event could theoretically alter the outcome, the current market consensus of 95.5% for Democrats aligns with the district’s structural and recent electoral fundamentals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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