California's 4th congressional district remains a safe Democratic seat with a Cook PVI of D+17 and Democratic voter registration exceeding 40 percent. Incumbent Mike Thompson advanced from the June 2026 primary alongside fellow Democrat Eric Jones, while the leading Republican finished third and was eliminated under the state's top-two system. This matchup ensures a Democratic general-election winner in November absent unforeseen vacancies or withdrawals. Trader consensus reflects the structural barriers for Republicans in this wine-country and Sacramento-suburb district, including consistent partisan lean and Thompson's long incumbency. A late candidate replacement or major scandal could theoretically alter the outcome before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$13,012 交易量
$13,012 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
96%
共和党
1%
$13,012 交易量
$13,012 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$5,915 交易量
96%
共和党
$7,097 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 4th congressional district remains a safe Democratic seat with a Cook PVI of D+17 and Democratic voter registration exceeding 40 percent. Incumbent Mike Thompson advanced from the June 2026 primary alongside fellow Democrat Eric Jones, while the leading Republican finished third and was eliminated under the state's top-two system. This matchup ensures a Democratic general-election winner in November absent unforeseen vacancies or withdrawals. Trader consensus reflects the structural barriers for Republicans in this wine-country and Sacramento-suburb district, including consistent partisan lean and Thompson's long incumbency. A late candidate replacement or major scandal could theoretically alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$13,012结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 4th congressional district remains a safe Democratic seat with a Cook PVI of D+17 and Democratic voter registration exceeding 40 percent. Incumbent Mike Thompson advanced from the June 2026 primary alongside fellow Democrat Eric Jones, while the leading Republican finished third and was eliminated under the state's top-two system. This matchup ensures a Democratic general-election winner in November absent unforeseen vacancies or withdrawals. Trader consensus reflects the structural barriers for Republicans in this wine-country and Sacramento-suburb district, including consistent partisan lean and Thompson's long incumbency. A late candidate replacement or major scandal could theoretically alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$13,012结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 4th congressional district remains a safe Democratic seat with a Cook PVI of D+17 and Democratic voter registration exceeding 40 percent. Incumbent Mike Thompson advanced from the June 2026 primary alongside fellow Democrat Eric Jones, while the leading Republican finished third and was eliminated under the state's top-two system. This matchup ensures a Democratic general-election winner in November absent unforeseen vacancies or withdrawals. Trader consensus reflects the structural barriers for Republicans in this wine-country and Sacramento-suburb district, including consistent partisan lean and Thompson's long incumbency. A late candidate replacement or major scandal could theoretically alter the outcome before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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