Incumbent Democratic Representative Mike Thompson holds a commanding position in California's 4th Congressional District heading into the November general election, consistent with trader consensus reflected in current pricing. The district carries a Democratic Partisan Voting Index of D+17, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic following redistricting changes and the June 2 top-two primary, where Thompson advanced comfortably ahead of Republican and Democratic challengers. Thompson's long tenure, committee role, and established fundraising further reinforce the outlook. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late national political shift, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or significant local controversy, though the structural advantages make such reversals unlikely without major new developments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
96%
共和党
5%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$3,125 交易量
96%
共和党
$2,527 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Mike Thompson holds a commanding position in California's 4th Congressional District heading into the November general election, consistent with trader consensus reflected in current pricing. The district carries a Democratic Partisan Voting Index of D+17, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic following redistricting changes and the June 2 top-two primary, where Thompson advanced comfortably ahead of Republican and Democratic challengers. Thompson's long tenure, committee role, and established fundraising further reinforce the outlook. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late national political shift, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or significant local controversy, though the structural advantages make such reversals unlikely without major new developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$5,652结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Mike Thompson holds a commanding position in California's 4th Congressional District heading into the November general election, consistent with trader consensus reflected in current pricing. The district carries a Democratic Partisan Voting Index of D+17, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic following redistricting changes and the June 2 top-two primary, where Thompson advanced comfortably ahead of Republican and Democratic challengers. Thompson's long tenure, committee role, and established fundraising further reinforce the outlook. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late national political shift, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or significant local controversy, though the structural advantages make such reversals unlikely without major new developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$5,652结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Mike Thompson holds a commanding position in California's 4th Congressional District heading into the November general election, consistent with trader consensus reflected in current pricing. The district carries a Democratic Partisan Voting Index of D+17, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic following redistricting changes and the June 2 top-two primary, where Thompson advanced comfortably ahead of Republican and Democratic challengers. Thompson's long tenure, committee role, and established fundraising further reinforce the outlook. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late national political shift, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or significant local controversy, though the structural advantages make such reversals unlikely without major new developments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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