California's 4th congressional district carries a D+17 partisan voter index, reflecting consistent Democratic advantages in recent presidential voting and making it one of the state's safer seats for the party. Long-serving Democratic incumbent Mike Thompson advanced from the June 2, 2026, top-two primary as the leading vote-getter and faces a Republican challenger in November. Forecasters rate the general election Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 95.5% for a Democratic winner reflects this structural edge, the incumbent's established record on the Ways and Means Committee, and limited recent shifts in local voting patterns. A late-breaking scandal, health issue, or unusually strong Republican turnout in specific counties could narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability events given the district's baseline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
96%
共和党
5%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$3,125 交易量
96%
共和党
$2,527 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 4th congressional district carries a D+17 partisan voter index, reflecting consistent Democratic advantages in recent presidential voting and making it one of the state's safer seats for the party. Long-serving Democratic incumbent Mike Thompson advanced from the June 2, 2026, top-two primary as the leading vote-getter and faces a Republican challenger in November. Forecasters rate the general election Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 95.5% for a Democratic winner reflects this structural edge, the incumbent's established record on the Ways and Means Committee, and limited recent shifts in local voting patterns. A late-breaking scandal, health issue, or unusually strong Republican turnout in specific counties could narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability events given the district's baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$5,652结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 4th congressional district carries a D+17 partisan voter index, reflecting consistent Democratic advantages in recent presidential voting and making it one of the state's safer seats for the party. Long-serving Democratic incumbent Mike Thompson advanced from the June 2, 2026, top-two primary as the leading vote-getter and faces a Republican challenger in November. Forecasters rate the general election Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 95.5% for a Democratic winner reflects this structural edge, the incumbent's established record on the Ways and Means Committee, and limited recent shifts in local voting patterns. A late-breaking scandal, health issue, or unusually strong Republican turnout in specific counties could narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability events given the district's baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$5,652结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 4th congressional district carries a D+17 partisan voter index, reflecting consistent Democratic advantages in recent presidential voting and making it one of the state's safer seats for the party. Long-serving Democratic incumbent Mike Thompson advanced from the June 2, 2026, top-two primary as the leading vote-getter and faces a Republican challenger in November. Forecasters rate the general election Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 95.5% for a Democratic winner reflects this structural edge, the incumbent's established record on the Ways and Means Committee, and limited recent shifts in local voting patterns. A late-breaking scandal, health issue, or unusually strong Republican turnout in specific counties could narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability events given the district's baseline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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