Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones, both Democrats, advanced from California's June 2, 2026, top-two primary for the 4th congressional district, setting up an all-Democratic November general election under the state's nonpartisan primary rules. Redistricting via Proposition 50 added rural and suburban territory, modestly shifting the partisan voting index, yet forecasters still rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic given its overall composition and Thompson's long incumbency. Trader consensus reflects the structural certainty of a Democratic winner in this matchup, with limited scope for Republican advancement. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain remote and include candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or unforeseen legal developments before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
5%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$3,843 交易量
95%
共和党
$2,583 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones, both Democrats, advanced from California's June 2, 2026, top-two primary for the 4th congressional district, setting up an all-Democratic November general election under the state's nonpartisan primary rules. Redistricting via Proposition 50 added rural and suburban territory, modestly shifting the partisan voting index, yet forecasters still rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic given its overall composition and Thompson's long incumbency. Trader consensus reflects the structural certainty of a Democratic winner in this matchup, with limited scope for Republican advancement. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain remote and include candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or unforeseen legal developments before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$6,425结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones, both Democrats, advanced from California's June 2, 2026, top-two primary for the 4th congressional district, setting up an all-Democratic November general election under the state's nonpartisan primary rules. Redistricting via Proposition 50 added rural and suburban territory, modestly shifting the partisan voting index, yet forecasters still rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic given its overall composition and Thompson's long incumbency. Trader consensus reflects the structural certainty of a Democratic winner in this matchup, with limited scope for Republican advancement. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain remote and include candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or unforeseen legal developments before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$6,425结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones, both Democrats, advanced from California's June 2, 2026, top-two primary for the 4th congressional district, setting up an all-Democratic November general election under the state's nonpartisan primary rules. Redistricting via Proposition 50 added rural and suburban territory, modestly shifting the partisan voting index, yet forecasters still rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic given its overall composition and Thompson's long incumbency. Trader consensus reflects the structural certainty of a Democratic winner in this matchup, with limited scope for Republican advancement. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain remote and include candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or unforeseen legal developments before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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