The district's strong Democratic voter registration edge and consistent partisan lean underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 95.5 percent. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic ahead of the November general election, reflecting the area's composition in Northern California's wine country and Sacramento suburbs. Incumbent Mike Thompson advanced from the June 2 top-two primary to face a Republican challenger, consistent with historical outcomes in the seat. Limited recent developments have altered this positioning, as the district has shown reliable support for Democratic candidates in prior cycles. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a significant national political shift, candidate-specific developments such as health or ethical issues, or unusually high Republican turnout, though structural factors make such changes improbable before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
96%
共和党
5%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$3,125 交易量
96%
共和党
$2,527 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Democratic voter registration edge and consistent partisan lean underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 95.5 percent. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic ahead of the November general election, reflecting the area's composition in Northern California's wine country and Sacramento suburbs. Incumbent Mike Thompson advanced from the June 2 top-two primary to face a Republican challenger, consistent with historical outcomes in the seat. Limited recent developments have altered this positioning, as the district has shown reliable support for Democratic candidates in prior cycles. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a significant national political shift, candidate-specific developments such as health or ethical issues, or unusually high Republican turnout, though structural factors make such changes improbable before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$5,652结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Democratic voter registration edge and consistent partisan lean underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 95.5 percent. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic ahead of the November general election, reflecting the area's composition in Northern California's wine country and Sacramento suburbs. Incumbent Mike Thompson advanced from the June 2 top-two primary to face a Republican challenger, consistent with historical outcomes in the seat. Limited recent developments have altered this positioning, as the district has shown reliable support for Democratic candidates in prior cycles. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a significant national political shift, candidate-specific developments such as health or ethical issues, or unusually high Republican turnout, though structural factors make such changes improbable before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$5,652结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's strong Democratic voter registration edge and consistent partisan lean underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 95.5 percent. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic ahead of the November general election, reflecting the area's composition in Northern California's wine country and Sacramento suburbs. Incumbent Mike Thompson advanced from the June 2 top-two primary to face a Republican challenger, consistent with historical outcomes in the seat. Limited recent developments have altered this positioning, as the district has shown reliable support for Democratic candidates in prior cycles. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a significant national political shift, candidate-specific developments such as health or ethical issues, or unusually high Republican turnout, though structural factors make such changes improbable before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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