Redistricting following Proposition 50 has transformed California's 3rd congressional district into a significantly more Democratic-leaning seat, with the partisan voting index shifting to D+6 and recent presidential results showing a roughly 10-point Democratic margin. Incumbent Representative Ami Bera advanced through the June 2026 primary with a clear plurality, facing Republican Robb Tucker in the November general election. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid D or Safe D based on the altered electoral map, fundraising patterns, and historical performance in comparable districts. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, though outcomes could shift with unusually low Democratic turnout, a major scandal involving the incumbent, or late-cycle national political realignments not yet evident in current data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$34,138 交易量
$34,138 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
3%
$34,138 交易量
$34,138 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$19,551 交易量
94%
共和党
$14,587 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting following Proposition 50 has transformed California's 3rd congressional district into a significantly more Democratic-leaning seat, with the partisan voting index shifting to D+6 and recent presidential results showing a roughly 10-point Democratic margin. Incumbent Representative Ami Bera advanced through the June 2026 primary with a clear plurality, facing Republican Robb Tucker in the November general election. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid D or Safe D based on the altered electoral map, fundraising patterns, and historical performance in comparable districts. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, though outcomes could shift with unusually low Democratic turnout, a major scandal involving the incumbent, or late-cycle national political realignments not yet evident in current data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$34,138结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting following Proposition 50 has transformed California's 3rd congressional district into a significantly more Democratic-leaning seat, with the partisan voting index shifting to D+6 and recent presidential results showing a roughly 10-point Democratic margin. Incumbent Representative Ami Bera advanced through the June 2026 primary with a clear plurality, facing Republican Robb Tucker in the November general election. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid D or Safe D based on the altered electoral map, fundraising patterns, and historical performance in comparable districts. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, though outcomes could shift with unusually low Democratic turnout, a major scandal involving the incumbent, or late-cycle national political realignments not yet evident in current data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$34,138结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting following Proposition 50 has transformed California's 3rd congressional district into a significantly more Democratic-leaning seat, with the partisan voting index shifting to D+6 and recent presidential results showing a roughly 10-point Democratic margin. Incumbent Representative Ami Bera advanced through the June 2026 primary with a clear plurality, facing Republican Robb Tucker in the November general election. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid D or Safe D based on the altered electoral map, fundraising patterns, and historical performance in comparable districts. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, though outcomes could shift with unusually low Democratic turnout, a major scandal involving the incumbent, or late-cycle national political realignments not yet evident in current data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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