Maryland's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, rooted in its Prince George's County suburbs and consistent large margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including the incumbent's 88 percent share in 2024. Glenn Ivey secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 79 percent of the vote, facing minimal intra-party opposition and positioning him for the November general election against Republican George McDermott. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic based on the district's electoral math and voting patterns. Trader consensus at 97 percent for Democrats reflects this structural advantage and the absence of recent polling shifts or notable challengers. Low-probability scenarios that could alter the outcome include an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national partisan realignment before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$45,477 交易量
$45,477 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
97%
共和党
2%
$45,477 交易量
$45,477 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$20,280 交易量
97%
共和党
$25,197 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, rooted in its Prince George's County suburbs and consistent large margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including the incumbent's 88 percent share in 2024. Glenn Ivey secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 79 percent of the vote, facing minimal intra-party opposition and positioning him for the November general election against Republican George McDermott. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic based on the district's electoral math and voting patterns. Trader consensus at 97 percent for Democrats reflects this structural advantage and the absence of recent polling shifts or notable challengers. Low-probability scenarios that could alter the outcome include an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national partisan realignment before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$45,477结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, rooted in its Prince George's County suburbs and consistent large margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including the incumbent's 88 percent share in 2024. Glenn Ivey secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 79 percent of the vote, facing minimal intra-party opposition and positioning him for the November general election against Republican George McDermott. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic based on the district's electoral math and voting patterns. Trader consensus at 97 percent for Democrats reflects this structural advantage and the absence of recent polling shifts or notable challengers. Low-probability scenarios that could alter the outcome include an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national partisan realignment before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$45,477结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, rooted in its Prince George's County suburbs and consistent large margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including the incumbent's 88 percent share in 2024. Glenn Ivey secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 79 percent of the vote, facing minimal intra-party opposition and positioning him for the November general election against Republican George McDermott. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic based on the district's electoral math and voting patterns. Trader consensus at 97 percent for Democrats reflects this structural advantage and the absence of recent polling shifts or notable challengers. Low-probability scenarios that could alter the outcome include an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national partisan realignment before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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