Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45.5% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 300-319 times on X from April 10-17, 2026, closely trailed by 280-299 (23.6%) and 320-339 (22.1%), reflecting his steady pace of roughly 35-50 posts per day tracked through April 13—42 on the 10th, 22 on the 11th, 53 on the 12th, and 35 on the 13th, totaling 152 in the first four days. This positions the market tightly around 300 total posts over eight days, driven by Musk's habitual high-volume engagement on Tesla updates, SpaceX launches, xAI developments, and political commentary amid no major disruptions like outages or controversies in the past week. With three days left including today (April 16) and tomorrow, any surge in viral moments or replies could push toward 320+, while quieter periods might dip below 300; watch for real-time X activity as the period nears close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于300-319 46%
280-299 24.4%
320-339 22.1%
340-359 6.0%
$10,063,520 交易量
$10,063,520 交易量
2026-04-17
260-279
1%
280-299
24%
300-319
46%
320-339
22%
340-359
6%
360-379
2%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
300-319 46%
280-299 24.4%
320-339 22.1%
340-359 6.0%
$10,063,520 交易量
$10,063,520 交易量
2026-04-17
260-279
$611,933 交易量
1%
280-299
$436,020 交易量
24%
300-319
$344,180 交易量
46%
320-339
$446,513 交易量
22%
340-359
$372,453 交易量
6%
360-379
$393,135 交易量
2%
380-399
$339,732 交易量
<1%
400-419
$413,116 交易量
<1%
420-439
$427,954 交易量
<1%
440-459
$483,526 交易量
<1%
460-479
$342,850 交易量
<1%
480-499
$329,750 交易量
<1%
500-519
$264,248 交易量
<1%
520-539
$266,477 交易量
<1%
540-559
$270,374 交易量
<1%
560-579
$188,742 交易量
<1%
580+
$354,007 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 10 12:00 PM ET to April 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45.5% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 300-319 times on X from April 10-17, 2026, closely trailed by 280-299 (23.6%) and 320-339 (22.1%), reflecting his steady pace of roughly 35-50 posts per day tracked through April 13—42 on the 10th, 22 on the 11th, 53 on the 12th, and 35 on the 13th, totaling 152 in the first four days. This positions the market tightly around 300 total posts over eight days, driven by Musk's habitual high-volume engagement on Tesla updates, SpaceX launches, xAI developments, and political commentary amid no major disruptions like outages or controversies in the past week. With three days left including today (April 16) and tomorrow, any surge in viral moments or replies could push toward 320+, while quieter periods might dip below 300; watch for real-time X activity as the period nears close.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 10 12:00 PM ET to April 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市场开放时间： Apr 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$10,063,520结束日期
2026-04-17市场开放时间
Apr 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 10 12:00 PM ET to April 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45.5% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 300-319 times on X from April 10-17, 2026, closely trailed by 280-299 (23.6%) and 320-339 (22.1%), reflecting his steady pace of roughly 35-50 posts per day tracked through April 13—42 on the 10th, 22 on the 11th, 53 on the 12th, and 35 on the 13th, totaling 152 in the first four days. This positions the market tightly around 300 total posts over eight days, driven by Musk's habitual high-volume engagement on Tesla updates, SpaceX launches, xAI developments, and political commentary amid no major disruptions like outages or controversies in the past week. With three days left including today (April 16) and tomorrow, any surge in viral moments or replies could push toward 320+, while quieter periods might dip below 300; watch for real-time X activity as the period nears close.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 10 12:00 PM ET to April 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$10,063,520结束日期
2026-04-17市场开放时间
Apr 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45.5% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 300-319 times on X from April 10-17, 2026, closely trailed by 280-299 (23.6%) and 320-339 (22.1%), reflecting his steady pace of roughly 35-50 posts per day tracked through April 13—42 on the 10th, 22 on the 11th, 53 on the 12th, and 35 on the 13th, totaling 152 in the first four days. This positions the market tightly around 300 total posts over eight days, driven by Musk's habitual high-volume engagement on Tesla updates, SpaceX launches, xAI developments, and political commentary amid no major disruptions like outages or controversies in the past week. With three days left including today (April 16) and tomorrow, any surge in viral moments or replies could push toward 320+, while quieter periods might dip below 300; watch for real-time X activity as the period nears close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题