Universal's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie enters its third weekend with traders overwhelmingly backing a sub-$44 million domestic gross at 91.5% implied probability, driven by its second-weekend haul of $68-69 million—a 49% drop from the $131.7 million opening—reflecting a front-loaded performance fueled by Easter family turnout and Nintendo brand loyalty despite unfavorable reviews. Cumulative domestic gross now exceeds $300 million, but post-holiday normalization, intensifying competition from Project Hail Mary's strong hold ($24 million second weekend), and typical 45-55% drops for animated sequels solidify the consensus. Realistic upsets could stem from unexpectedly robust word-of-mouth via audience scores, sustained IMAX premiums, or lighter counterprogramming, potentially pushing toward $44-48 million if legs extend like the 2023 Super Mario Bros. film's week-three $33 million. Final estimates lock Sunday, April 19.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于《超级马里奥银河电影》第三周末票房
《超级马里奥银河电影》第三周末票房
低于4400万 92%
4400万-4800万 7.2%
4800万-5200万 1.7%
>5200万 <1%
最新
$11,332 交易量
最新
$11,332 交易量
2026-04-20
低于4400万
92%
4400万-4800万
7%
4800万-5200万
2%
>5200万
<1%
低于4400万 92%
4400万-4800万 7.2%
4800万-5200万 1.7%
>5200万 <1%
最新
$11,332 交易量
最新
$11,332 交易量
2026-04-20
低于4400万
$2,369 交易量
92%
4400万-4800万
$2,582 交易量
7%
4800万-5200万
$4,434 交易量
2%
>5200万
$1,947 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Universal's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie enters its third weekend with traders overwhelmingly backing a sub-$44 million domestic gross at 91.5% implied probability, driven by its second-weekend haul of $68-69 million—a 49% drop from the $131.7 million opening—reflecting a front-loaded performance fueled by Easter family turnout and Nintendo brand loyalty despite unfavorable reviews. Cumulative domestic gross now exceeds $300 million, but post-holiday normalization, intensifying competition from Project Hail Mary's strong hold ($24 million second weekend), and typical 45-55% drops for animated sequels solidify the consensus. Realistic upsets could stem from unexpectedly robust word-of-mouth via audience scores, sustained IMAX premiums, or lighter counterprogramming, potentially pushing toward $44-48 million if legs extend like the 2023 Super Mario Bros. film's week-three $33 million. Final estimates lock Sunday, April 19.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
市场开放时间： Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
交易量
$11,332结束日期
2026-04-20市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Universal's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie enters its third weekend with traders overwhelmingly backing a sub-$44 million domestic gross at 91.5% implied probability, driven by its second-weekend haul of $68-69 million—a 49% drop from the $131.7 million opening—reflecting a front-loaded performance fueled by Easter family turnout and Nintendo brand loyalty despite unfavorable reviews. Cumulative domestic gross now exceeds $300 million, but post-holiday normalization, intensifying competition from Project Hail Mary's strong hold ($24 million second weekend), and typical 45-55% drops for animated sequels solidify the consensus. Realistic upsets could stem from unexpectedly robust word-of-mouth via audience scores, sustained IMAX premiums, or lighter counterprogramming, potentially pushing toward $44-48 million if legs extend like the 2023 Super Mario Bros. film's week-three $33 million. Final estimates lock Sunday, April 19.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$11,332结束日期
2026-04-20市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Universal's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie enters its third weekend with traders overwhelmingly backing a sub-$44 million domestic gross at 91.5% implied probability, driven by its second-weekend haul of $68-69 million—a 49% drop from the $131.7 million opening—reflecting a front-loaded performance fueled by Easter family turnout and Nintendo brand loyalty despite unfavorable reviews. Cumulative domestic gross now exceeds $300 million, but post-holiday normalization, intensifying competition from Project Hail Mary's strong hold ($24 million second weekend), and typical 45-55% drops for animated sequels solidify the consensus. Realistic upsets could stem from unexpectedly robust word-of-mouth via audience scores, sustained IMAX premiums, or lighter counterprogramming, potentially pushing toward $44-48 million if legs extend like the 2023 Super Mario Bros. film's week-three $33 million. Final estimates lock Sunday, April 19.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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