Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 71.5% implied probability that President Trump will not disparage Pope Leo XIV by April 30, driven by recent policy-focused criticisms rather than personal attacks amid their public feud over the U.S.-Iran war. On April 13, Trump posted on Truth Social accusing the pontiff—elected May 2025 as the first American pope, Robert Francis Prevost of Chicago—of being "weak on crime" and "terrible for foreign policy," prompting Catholic backlash and papal statements affirming no fear of the administration. Traders view these as substantive disagreements on military action and nuclear threats, not qualifying as disparagement akin to Trump's past rhetoric against Pope Francis. With no scheduled debates, summits, or papal visits in the next two weeks, and Trump prioritizing Iran escalations, the wisdom of crowds anticipates restraint.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-04-30
最新
最新
2026-04-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Pope Leo XIV personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the Pope weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the Pope's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 71.5% implied probability that President Trump will not disparage Pope Leo XIV by April 30, driven by recent policy-focused criticisms rather than personal attacks amid their public feud over the U.S.-Iran war. On April 13, Trump posted on Truth Social accusing the pontiff—elected May 2025 as the first American pope, Robert Francis Prevost of Chicago—of being "weak on crime" and "terrible for foreign policy," prompting Catholic backlash and papal statements affirming no fear of the administration. Traders view these as substantive disagreements on military action and nuclear threats, not qualifying as disparagement akin to Trump's past rhetoric against Pope Francis. With no scheduled debates, summits, or papal visits in the next two weeks, and Trump prioritizing Iran escalations, the wisdom of crowds anticipates restraint.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Pope Leo XIV personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the Pope weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the Pope's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the Pope weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the Pope's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Apr 13, 2026, 6:35 PM ET
交易量
$4,499结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 6:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Pope Leo XIV personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the Pope weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the Pope's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 71.5% implied probability that President Trump will not disparage Pope Leo XIV by April 30, driven by recent policy-focused criticisms rather than personal attacks amid their public feud over the U.S.-Iran war. On April 13, Trump posted on Truth Social accusing the pontiff—elected May 2025 as the first American pope, Robert Francis Prevost of Chicago—of being "weak on crime" and "terrible for foreign policy," prompting Catholic backlash and papal statements affirming no fear of the administration. Traders view these as substantive disagreements on military action and nuclear threats, not qualifying as disparagement akin to Trump's past rhetoric against Pope Francis. With no scheduled debates, summits, or papal visits in the next two weeks, and Trump prioritizing Iran escalations, the wisdom of crowds anticipates restraint.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Pope Leo XIV personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the Pope weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the Pope's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the Pope weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the Pope's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$4,499结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 6:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 71.5% implied probability that President Trump will not disparage Pope Leo XIV by April 30, driven by recent policy-focused criticisms rather than personal attacks amid their public feud over the U.S.-Iran war. On April 13, Trump posted on Truth Social accusing the pontiff—elected May 2025 as the first American pope, Robert Francis Prevost of Chicago—of being "weak on crime" and "terrible for foreign policy," prompting Catholic backlash and papal statements affirming no fear of the administration. Traders view these as substantive disagreements on military action and nuclear threats, not qualifying as disparagement akin to Trump's past rhetoric against Pope Francis. With no scheduled debates, summits, or papal visits in the next two weeks, and Trump prioritizing Iran escalations, the wisdom of crowds anticipates restraint.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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