Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, initiated in April 2025, have collapsed amid escalating military tensions, driving trader consensus to an 80.5% implied probability against the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31. A US 15-point proposal on March 25 demanded Iran dismantle its program, halt enrichment, and hand over stockpiles, but Tehran rejected these terms despite earlier February offers for zero stockpiling. Recent US airstrikes on Isfahan nuclear facilities on March 31—following reports of Iran transferring highly enriched uranium there—signal de-escalation is unlikely soon, with no verified handover and conflict now in its second month complicating diplomacy. IAEA oversight remains limited, reinforcing barriers to resolution before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-05-31
最新
最新
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, initiated in April 2025, have collapsed amid escalating military tensions, driving trader consensus to an 80.5% implied probability against the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31. A US 15-point proposal on March 25 demanded Iran dismantle its program, halt enrichment, and hand over stockpiles, but Tehran rejected these terms despite earlier February offers for zero stockpiling. Recent US airstrikes on Isfahan nuclear facilities on March 31—following reports of Iran transferring highly enriched uranium there—signal de-escalation is unlikely soon, with no verified handover and conflict now in its second month complicating diplomacy. IAEA oversight remains limited, reinforcing barriers to resolution before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$6,059结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, initiated in April 2025, have collapsed amid escalating military tensions, driving trader consensus to an 80.5% implied probability against the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31. A US 15-point proposal on March 25 demanded Iran dismantle its program, halt enrichment, and hand over stockpiles, but Tehran rejected these terms despite earlier February offers for zero stockpiling. Recent US airstrikes on Isfahan nuclear facilities on March 31—following reports of Iran transferring highly enriched uranium there—signal de-escalation is unlikely soon, with no verified handover and conflict now in its second month complicating diplomacy. IAEA oversight remains limited, reinforcing barriers to resolution before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$6,059结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, initiated in April 2025, have collapsed amid escalating military tensions, driving trader consensus to an 80.5% implied probability against the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31. A US 15-point proposal on March 25 demanded Iran dismantle its program, halt enrichment, and hand over stockpiles, but Tehran rejected these terms despite earlier February offers for zero stockpiling. Recent US airstrikes on Isfahan nuclear facilities on March 31—following reports of Iran transferring highly enriched uranium there—signal de-escalation is unlikely soon, with no verified handover and conflict now in its second month complicating diplomacy. IAEA oversight remains limited, reinforcing barriers to resolution before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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