Trader consensus on Strait of Hormuz ship transits for March 30-April 5 reflects a fragile uptick in selective maritime traffic amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, where IRGC-managed permissions have allowed 8 AIS-visible crossings on March 30 per Windward data and at least 3 Chinese vessels on March 31, following 12 over March 28-29 via S&P Global. This limited flow—up from near-zero earlier in March but far below pre-war 100+ daily norms—positions 35-39 ships as the slim leader at 30.5%, with 20-39 buckets tightly clustered due to daily variability from dark activity, vessel backlogs exceeding 1,900 ships, and war risk insurance constraints. Escalation like recent attacks on March 30-31 could drop counts below 25, while expanded clearances for allies or U.S. escorts might push toward 40+.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)
35-39 30%
20-24 22%
25-29 20%
30-34 19%
最新
$16,890 交易量
最新
$16,890 交易量
2026-04-05
<10
1%
10-14
1%
15-19
7%
20-24
22%
25-29
20%
30-34
19%
35-39
30%
40-44
3%
45+
3%
35-39 30%
20-24 22%
25-29 20%
30-34 19%
最新
$16,890 交易量
最新
$16,890 交易量
2026-04-05
<10
$2,133 交易量
1%
10-14
$1,763 交易量
1%
15-19
$2,003 交易量
7%
20-24
$1,863 交易量
22%
25-29
$1,898 交易量
20%
30-34
$1,872 交易量
19%
35-39
$2,903 交易量
30%
40-44
$1,302 交易量
3%
45+
$2,577 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Strait of Hormuz ship transits for March 30-April 5 reflects a fragile uptick in selective maritime traffic amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, where IRGC-managed permissions have allowed 8 AIS-visible crossings on March 30 per Windward data and at least 3 Chinese vessels on March 31, following 12 over March 28-29 via S&P Global. This limited flow—up from near-zero earlier in March but far below pre-war 100+ daily norms—positions 35-39 ships as the slim leader at 30.5%, with 20-39 buckets tightly clustered due to daily variability from dark activity, vessel backlogs exceeding 1,900 ships, and war risk insurance constraints. Escalation like recent attacks on March 30-31 could drop counts below 25, while expanded clearances for allies or U.S. escorts might push toward 40+.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Mar 30, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
交易量
$16,890结束日期
2026-04-05市场开放时间
Mar 30, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Strait of Hormuz ship transits for March 30-April 5 reflects a fragile uptick in selective maritime traffic amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, where IRGC-managed permissions have allowed 8 AIS-visible crossings on March 30 per Windward data and at least 3 Chinese vessels on March 31, following 12 over March 28-29 via S&P Global. This limited flow—up from near-zero earlier in March but far below pre-war 100+ daily norms—positions 35-39 ships as the slim leader at 30.5%, with 20-39 buckets tightly clustered due to daily variability from dark activity, vessel backlogs exceeding 1,900 ships, and war risk insurance constraints. Escalation like recent attacks on March 30-31 could drop counts below 25, while expanded clearances for allies or U.S. escorts might push toward 40+.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$16,890结束日期
2026-04-05市场开放时间
Mar 30, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Strait of Hormuz ship transits for March 30-April 5 reflects a fragile uptick in selective maritime traffic amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, where IRGC-managed permissions have allowed 8 AIS-visible crossings on March 30 per Windward data and at least 3 Chinese vessels on March 31, following 12 over March 28-29 via S&P Global. This limited flow—up from near-zero earlier in March but far below pre-war 100+ daily norms—positions 35-39 ships as the slim leader at 30.5%, with 20-39 buckets tightly clustered due to daily variability from dark activity, vessel backlogs exceeding 1,900 ships, and war risk insurance constraints. Escalation like recent attacks on March 30-31 could drop counts below 25, while expanded clearances for allies or U.S. escorts might push toward 40+.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题