A two-week US-Iran ceasefire agreed on April 8, 2026, marks the most significant de-escalation since US-Israel airstrikes ignited conflict on February 28, temporarily halting attacks and easing Strait of Hormuz restrictions to enable diplomacy. Iran's 10-point peace proposal, including nuclear facility limits, missile curbs, and full sanctions relief, drew a cautious response from President Trump, who called it workable yet inadequate against US demands for uranium stockpile surrender and proxy funding halts. Delegations convene in Islamabad on April 10 for substantive talks, but unresolved nuclear and ballistic missile issues, alongside regional tensions, leave a permanent peace deal uncertain amid warnings of escalation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
$90,439 交易量
2026-04-22
4月22日
12%
4月30日
13%
5月31日
31%
$90,439 交易量
4月22日
$65,659 交易量
12%
4月30日
$14,611 交易量
13%
5月31日
$10,313 交易量
31%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A two-week US-Iran ceasefire agreed on April 8, 2026, marks the most significant de-escalation since US-Israel airstrikes ignited conflict on February 28, temporarily halting attacks and easing Strait of Hormuz restrictions to enable diplomacy. Iran's 10-point peace proposal, including nuclear facility limits, missile curbs, and full sanctions relief, drew a cautious response from President Trump, who called it workable yet inadequate against US demands for uranium stockpile surrender and proxy funding halts. Delegations convene in Islamabad on April 10 for substantive talks, but unresolved nuclear and ballistic missile issues, alongside regional tensions, leave a permanent peace deal uncertain amid warnings of escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ET
交易量
$90,439结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A two-week US-Iran ceasefire agreed on April 8, 2026, marks the most significant de-escalation since US-Israel airstrikes ignited conflict on February 28, temporarily halting attacks and easing Strait of Hormuz restrictions to enable diplomacy. Iran's 10-point peace proposal, including nuclear facility limits, missile curbs, and full sanctions relief, drew a cautious response from President Trump, who called it workable yet inadequate against US demands for uranium stockpile surrender and proxy funding halts. Delegations convene in Islamabad on April 10 for substantive talks, but unresolved nuclear and ballistic missile issues, alongside regional tensions, leave a permanent peace deal uncertain amid warnings of escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$90,439结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A two-week US-Iran ceasefire agreed on April 8, 2026, marks the most significant de-escalation since US-Israel airstrikes ignited conflict on February 28, temporarily halting attacks and easing Strait of Hormuz restrictions to enable diplomacy. Iran's 10-point peace proposal, including nuclear facility limits, missile curbs, and full sanctions relief, drew a cautious response from President Trump, who called it workable yet inadequate against US demands for uranium stockpile surrender and proxy funding halts. Delegations convene in Islamabad on April 10 for substantive talks, but unresolved nuclear and ballistic missile issues, alongside regional tensions, leave a permanent peace deal uncertain amid warnings of escalation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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