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icon for 以色列在……之前从黎巴嫩撤军？
地缘政治·伊朗停火

以色列在……之前从黎巴嫩撤军？

icon for 以色列在……之前从黎巴嫩撤军？
地缘政治·伊朗停火

以色列在……之前从黎巴嫩撤军？

$8,452,007 交易量

2026-09-30
Polymarket

$8,452,007 交易量

Polymarket

9月30日

$264,424 交易量

1%

12月31日

$225,789 交易量

6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli statements and military actions in southern Lebanon continue to tie any further IDF redeployment to verifiable Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese Armed Forces control, rather than fixed timelines. The June 2026 U.S.-mediated framework agreement established limited pilot zones for phased withdrawal contingent on that process, with a security annex emphasizing results-based sequencing through a military coordination group. In September 2026, Israeli forces completed operations destroying extensive Hezbollah tunnel networks at the Ali al-Taher ridge and conducted additional strikes, after which Defense Minister Israel Katz reiterated that troops would remain in the expanded security zone until full disarmament across Lebanon. Ongoing low-level clashes and implementation talks, including verification mechanisms, shape assessments of how quickly or completely any broader withdrawal could occur.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
交易量
$8,452,007
结束日期
2027-01-01
市场开放时间
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

结算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli statements and military actions in southern Lebanon continue to tie any further IDF redeployment to verifiable Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese Armed Forces control, rather than fixed timelines. The June 2026 U.S.-mediated framework agreement established limited pilot zones for phased withdrawal contingent on that process, with a security annex emphasizing results-based sequencing through a military coordination group. In September 2026, Israeli forces completed operations destroying extensive Hezbollah tunnel networks at the Ali al-Taher ridge and conducted additional strikes, after which Defense Minister Israel Katz reiterated that troops would remain in the expanded security zone until full disarmament across Lebanon. Ongoing low-level clashes and implementation talks, including verification mechanisms, shape assessments of how quickly or completely any broader withdrawal could occur.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
交易量
$8,452,007
结束日期
2027-01-01
市场开放时间
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

结算方

0x65070BE91...

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常见问题

"以色列在……之前从黎巴嫩撤军？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 7 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"12月31日"，概率为 6%，其次是"9月30日"，概率为 1%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 6¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 6%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"以色列在……之前从黎巴嫩撤军？"已产生 $8.5 million 的总交易量（自Apr 16, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"以色列在……之前从黎巴嫩撤军？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 7 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

这是一个非常开放的市场。"以色列在……之前从黎巴嫩撤军？"的当前领先者是"12月31日"，仅有 6%，"9月30日"紧随其后为 1%。由于没有任何结果占据明显优势，交易者认为这高度不确定，可能带来独特的交易机会。这些赔率实时更新，请将本页加入书签。

"以色列在……之前从黎巴嫩撤军？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。