Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Elon's steady X posting rhythm, with 71 tweets logged since April 14 at 12 PM ET—29% into the eight-day window—projecting a mid-200s total if the early pace holds, yet closely split implied probabilities (260-279 and 280-299 both at 16.5%) anticipate a pickup to his recent 35-45 daily average seen in prior weeks like April 7-14 (resolved near 280-299). This tight race hinges on burst potential from viral threads, as Elon's recent commentary on South African race laws and Tesla Semi updates has spiked engagement, while quieter periods tied to AI hardware tapeouts could drag totals lower. Watch for swing factors over the next five days: SpaceX milestones, FSD demos, or escalating political discourse that historically amplifies his output.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于260-279 17%
280-299 17%
300-319 15%
240-259 14%
$3,850,377 交易量
$3,850,377 交易量
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
5%
220-239
9%
240-259
14%
260-279
17%
280-299
17%
300-319
15%
320-339
11%
340-359
6%
360-379
3%
380-399
2%
400-419
1%
420-439
1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
260-279 17%
280-299 17%
300-319 15%
240-259 14%
$3,850,377 交易量
$3,850,377 交易量
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
5%
220-239
9%
240-259
14%
260-279
17%
280-299
17%
300-319
15%
320-339
11%
340-359
6%
360-379
3%
380-399
2%
400-419
1%
420-439
1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市场开放时间： Apr 11, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Elon's steady X posting rhythm, with 71 tweets logged since April 14 at 12 PM ET—29% into the eight-day window—projecting a mid-200s total if the early pace holds, yet closely split implied probabilities (260-279 and 280-299 both at 16.5%) anticipate a pickup to his recent 35-45 daily average seen in prior weeks like April 7-14 (resolved near 280-299). This tight race hinges on burst potential from viral threads, as Elon's recent commentary on South African race laws and Tesla Semi updates has spiked engagement, while quieter periods tied to AI hardware tapeouts could drag totals lower. Watch for swing factors over the next five days: SpaceX milestones, FSD demos, or escalating political discourse that historically amplifies his output.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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