Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 260-319 tweets for Elon Musk's X posts from April 14-21, with 260-279 and 280-299 each at 16.5% implied probability, mirroring his prior week's 280-299 tally and recent 45-post daily average. The market's narrow spread reflects steady posting rhythms fueled by viral commentary on Grok's top Medicine benchmark, Starlink's global reach, South African tensions, and California fraud probes, alongside today's Terafab supplier outreach and Tesla AI5 chip buzz. Early pace of 71 posts (29% elapsed) projects ~270 total, but sustained high-volume days versus potential lulls in political or tech catalysts will decide if volume tips higher into 300+ or settles lower, with resolution at April 21 noon ET.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于260-279 17%
280-299 17%
300-319 15%
240-259 14%
$3,855,119 交易量
$3,855,119 交易量
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
5%
220-239
9%
240-259
14%
260-279
17%
280-299
17%
300-319
15%
320-339
12%
340-359
6%
360-379
3%
380-399
2%
400-419
1%
420-439
1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
260-279 17%
280-299 17%
300-319 15%
240-259 14%
$3,855,119 交易量
$3,855,119 交易量
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
5%
220-239
9%
240-259
14%
260-279
17%
280-299
17%
300-319
15%
320-339
12%
340-359
6%
360-379
3%
380-399
2%
400-419
1%
420-439
1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市场开放时间： Apr 11, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 260-319 tweets for Elon Musk's X posts from April 14-21, with 260-279 and 280-299 each at 16.5% implied probability, mirroring his prior week's 280-299 tally and recent 45-post daily average. The market's narrow spread reflects steady posting rhythms fueled by viral commentary on Grok's top Medicine benchmark, Starlink's global reach, South African tensions, and California fraud probes, alongside today's Terafab supplier outreach and Tesla AI5 chip buzz. Early pace of 71 posts (29% elapsed) projects ~270 total, but sustained high-volume days versus potential lulls in political or tech catalysts will decide if volume tips higher into 300+ or settles lower, with resolution at April 21 noon ET.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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