Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters around 240-299 X posts by Elon Musk from April 3-10, with 240-259 leading at 13.5% implied probability and 260-279 close behind at 12.5%, reflecting his recent weekly averages of 30-40 daily amid steady cultural buzz from Tesla announcements. The prior March 20-27 period resolved at 260-279, while the ongoing March 27-April 3 market paces toward the mid-200s after a March 29 slowdown to 13 posts, offset by April 1 spikes on Model S/X custom order finale and FSD acclaim from global influencers. Differentiating factors include potential viral momentum from SpaceX launches, xAI Grok updates, or political commentary—hallmarks of Musk's unpredictable engagement trajectory—versus lulls during focused executive periods, keeping the race competitive as the week nears.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于240-259 14%
260-279 13%
220-239 12%
280-299 12%
$301,983 交易量
$301,983 交易量
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
1%
140-159
1%
160-179
2%
180-199
3%
200-219
9%
220-239
12%
240-259
14%
260-279
13%
280-299
12%
300-319
10%
320-339
8%
340-359
7%
360-379
6%
380-399
4%
400-419
2%
420-439
2%
440-459
1%
460-479
1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
240-259 14%
260-279 13%
220-239 12%
280-299 12%
$301,983 交易量
$301,983 交易量
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
1%
140-159
1%
160-179
2%
180-199
3%
200-219
9%
220-239
12%
240-259
14%
260-279
13%
280-299
12%
300-319
10%
320-339
8%
340-359
7%
360-379
6%
380-399
4%
400-419
2%
420-439
2%
440-459
1%
460-479
1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters around 240-299 X posts by Elon Musk from April 3-10, with 240-259 leading at 13.5% implied probability and 260-279 close behind at 12.5%, reflecting his recent weekly averages of 30-40 daily amid steady cultural buzz from Tesla announcements. The prior March 20-27 period resolved at 260-279, while the ongoing March 27-April 3 market paces toward the mid-200s after a March 29 slowdown to 13 posts, offset by April 1 spikes on Model S/X custom order finale and FSD acclaim from global influencers. Differentiating factors include potential viral momentum from SpaceX launches, xAI Grok updates, or political commentary—hallmarks of Musk's unpredictable engagement trajectory—versus lulls during focused executive periods, keeping the race competitive as the week nears.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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