Polymarket traders show a razor-thin split in Elon Musk's anticipated X post volume for March 30-April 1, with 65-89 posts holding a 38.5% implied probability over 40-64 at 32.5%, reflecting his recent cadence of roughly 15-30 daily posts amid steady social media engagement. Absent blockbuster announcements from Tesla, SpaceX, or DOGE in the past 48 hours, the contest pivots on weekend dynamics—Musk often ramps up during off-hours for global reach—versus quieter lulls seen in resolved markets like mid-March's lower tallies. Tail risks like 90+ (15.5%) loom from viral threads or culture-war replies, but trader capital clusters on moderated output, with real-time X activity as the key differentiator before the period closes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于65-89 39%
40-64 33%
90-114 16%
少于40条 6.5%
NEW
$72,924 交易量
NEW
$72,924 交易量
Apr 1, 2026
少于40条
7%
40-64
33%
65-89
39%
90-114
16%
115-139
7%
140-164
2%
165-189
1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
65-89 39%
40-64 33%
90-114 16%
少于40条 6.5%
NEW
$72,924 交易量
NEW
$72,924 交易量
Apr 1, 2026
少于40条
$10,708 交易量
7%
40-64
$3,146 交易量
33%
65-89
$1,963 交易量
39%
90-114
$1,764 交易量
16%
115-139
$2,822 交易量
7%
140-164
$4,506 交易量
2%
165-189
$3,460 交易量
1%
190-214
$11,330 交易量
<1%
215-239
$12,458 交易量
<1%
240+
$20,767 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 30 12:00 PM ET to April 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Polymarket traders show a razor-thin split in Elon Musk's anticipated X post volume for March 30-April 1, with 65-89 posts holding a 38.5% implied probability over 40-64 at 32.5%, reflecting his recent cadence of roughly 15-30 daily posts amid steady social media engagement. Absent blockbuster announcements from Tesla, SpaceX, or DOGE in the past 48 hours, the contest pivots on weekend dynamics—Musk often ramps up during off-hours for global reach—versus quieter lulls seen in resolved markets like mid-March's lower tallies. Tail risks like 90+ (15.5%) loom from viral threads or culture-war replies, but trader capital clusters on moderated output, with real-time X activity as the key differentiator before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 30 12:00 PM ET to April 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市场开放时间： Mar 28, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
交易量
$72,924结束日期
Apr 1, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 28, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 30 12:00 PM ET to April 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Polymarket traders show a razor-thin split in Elon Musk's anticipated X post volume for March 30-April 1, with 65-89 posts holding a 38.5% implied probability over 40-64 at 32.5%, reflecting his recent cadence of roughly 15-30 daily posts amid steady social media engagement. Absent blockbuster announcements from Tesla, SpaceX, or DOGE in the past 48 hours, the contest pivots on weekend dynamics—Musk often ramps up during off-hours for global reach—versus quieter lulls seen in resolved markets like mid-March's lower tallies. Tail risks like 90+ (15.5%) loom from viral threads or culture-war replies, but trader capital clusters on moderated output, with real-time X activity as the key differentiator before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 30 12:00 PM ET to April 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$72,924结束日期
Apr 1, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 28, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders show a razor-thin split in Elon Musk's anticipated X post volume for March 30-April 1, with 65-89 posts holding a 38.5% implied probability over 40-64 at 32.5%, reflecting his recent cadence of roughly 15-30 daily posts amid steady social media engagement. Absent blockbuster announcements from Tesla, SpaceX, or DOGE in the past 48 hours, the contest pivots on weekend dynamics—Musk often ramps up during off-hours for global reach—versus quieter lulls seen in resolved markets like mid-March's lower tallies. Tail risks like 90+ (15.5%) loom from viral threads or culture-war replies, but trader capital clusters on moderated output, with real-time X activity as the key differentiator before the period closes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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