Traders wagering on another magnitude 7.0 or above earthquake are grappling with seismology's core unpredictability, where markets hinge on historical averages of 15-20 such events annually rather than precise forecasts. The April 3 Taiwan 7.4 quake, the strongest in 25 years there, killing 18 and injuring over 1,100, has heightened global vigilance but triggered no immediate successors, with USGS aftershocks tapering below 5.0. No M7+ quakes have struck in the past week amid quiet Pacific Ring of Fire activity. Key watchpoints include subduction zones like Japan and Indonesia; upcoming no major events, but real-time monitoring via USGS feeds could spark volatility if tensions build in high-risk areas. Consensus reflects steady baseline risk without fresh catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于又发生了7.0级或以上的地震…… ？
又发生了7.0级或以上的地震…… ？
NEW
May 31, 2026
3月31日
17%
4月30日
78%
5月31日
88%
$7,991 交易量
3月31日
$3,135 交易量
17%
4月30日
$3,050 交易量
78%
5月31日
$2,111 交易量
88%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Traders wagering on another magnitude 7.0 or above earthquake are grappling with seismology's core unpredictability, where markets hinge on historical averages of 15-20 such events annually rather than precise forecasts. The April 3 Taiwan 7.4 quake, the strongest in 25 years there, killing 18 and injuring over 1,100, has heightened global vigilance but triggered no immediate successors, with USGS aftershocks tapering below 5.0. No M7+ quakes have struck in the past week amid quiet Pacific Ring of Fire activity. Key watchpoints include subduction zones like Japan and Indonesia; upcoming no major events, but real-time monitoring via USGS feeds could spark volatility if tensions build in high-risk areas. Consensus reflects steady baseline risk without fresh catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Mar 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ET
交易量
$7,991结束日期
May 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Traders wagering on another magnitude 7.0 or above earthquake are grappling with seismology's core unpredictability, where markets hinge on historical averages of 15-20 such events annually rather than precise forecasts. The April 3 Taiwan 7.4 quake, the strongest in 25 years there, killing 18 and injuring over 1,100, has heightened global vigilance but triggered no immediate successors, with USGS aftershocks tapering below 5.0. No M7+ quakes have struck in the past week amid quiet Pacific Ring of Fire activity. Key watchpoints include subduction zones like Japan and Indonesia; upcoming no major events, but real-time monitoring via USGS feeds could spark volatility if tensions build in high-risk areas. Consensus reflects steady baseline risk without fresh catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$7,991结束日期
May 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders wagering on another magnitude 7.0 or above earthquake are grappling with seismology's core unpredictability, where markets hinge on historical averages of 15-20 such events annually rather than precise forecasts. The April 3 Taiwan 7.4 quake, the strongest in 25 years there, killing 18 and injuring over 1,100, has heightened global vigilance but triggered no immediate successors, with USGS aftershocks tapering below 5.0. No M7+ quakes have struck in the past week amid quiet Pacific Ring of Fire activity. Key watchpoints include subduction zones like Japan and Indonesia; upcoming no major events, but real-time monitoring via USGS feeds could spark volatility if tensions build in high-risk areas. Consensus reflects steady baseline risk without fresh catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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