Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on Elon Musk sustaining 300-359 tweets during March 27-April 3, 2026, with those ranges trading at 11.5% implied probabilities each, reflecting his established pattern as X's hyperactive CEO posting 250-450 times weekly amid product launches, political commentary, and meme culture. Recent weeks, including spikes over 400 during Tesla earnings and election buzz, underscore this volatility, yet averages hover around 320-340 per trackers like Elon Tweets archive, driving tight competition among mid-300s bins. Absent major 2026 catalysts like Mars missions or regulatory drama, sentiment favors continuity over extremes, though under 200 or 500+ tails linger at under 2% for outlier scenarios.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于300-319 12%
320-339 12%
340-359 12%
360-379 11%
$150,860 交易量
$150,860 交易量
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
4%
220-239
5%
240-259
5%
260-279
7%
280-299
10%
300-319
12%
320-339
12%
340-359
12%
360-379
11%
380-399
9%
400-419
4%
420-439
3%
440-459
3%
460-479
2%
480-499
2%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
300-319 12%
320-339 12%
340-359 12%
360-379 11%
$150,860 交易量
$150,860 交易量
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
4%
220-239
5%
240-259
5%
260-279
7%
280-299
10%
300-319
12%
320-339
12%
340-359
12%
360-379
11%
380-399
9%
400-419
4%
420-439
3%
440-459
3%
460-479
2%
480-499
2%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市场开放时间: Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on Elon Musk sustaining 300-359 tweets during March 27-April 3, 2026, with those ranges trading at 11.5% implied probabilities each, reflecting his established pattern as X's hyperactive CEO posting 250-450 times weekly amid product launches, political commentary, and meme culture. Recent weeks, including spikes over 400 during Tesla earnings and election buzz, underscore this volatility, yet averages hover around 320-340 per trackers like Elon Tweets archive, driving tight competition among mid-300s bins. Absent major 2026 catalysts like Mars missions or regulatory drama, sentiment favors continuity over extremes, though under 200 or 500+ tails linger at under 2% for outlier scenarios.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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