Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.9% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data that has quelled rate-cut hopes. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs amid a 4.3% unemployment rate, signaling sustained growth without distress. The March FOMC statement and dot plot reinforced a patient policy stance amid sticky core PCE inflation near 2.8%. Barring unforeseen pre-meeting data surprises like softer April jobless claims, this consensus appears ironclad, with the rate decision announcement tomorrow at 2:00 PM ET as the key catalyst.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于不变 99.8%
降息50个基点以上 <1%
下降25个基点 <1%
提高25个基点以上 <1%
$186,217,826 交易量
$186,217,826 交易量
2026-04-29
降息50个基点以上
<1%
下降25个基点
<1%
不变
100%
提高25个基点以上
<1%
不变 99.8%
降息50个基点以上 <1%
下降25个基点 <1%
提高25个基点以上 <1%
$186,217,826 交易量
$186,217,826 交易量
2026-04-29
降息50个基点以上
$57,562,422 交易量
<1%
下降25个基点
$37,309,092 交易量
<1%
不变
$45,582,017 交易量
100%
提高25个基点以上
$45,780,463 交易量
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.9% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data that has quelled rate-cut hopes. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs amid a 4.3% unemployment rate, signaling sustained growth without distress. The March FOMC statement and dot plot reinforced a patient policy stance amid sticky core PCE inflation near 2.8%. Barring unforeseen pre-meeting data surprises like softer April jobless claims, this consensus appears ironclad, with the rate decision announcement tomorrow at 2:00 PM ET as the key catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
交易量
$186,217,826结束日期
2026-04-29市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.9% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data that has quelled rate-cut hopes. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs amid a 4.3% unemployment rate, signaling sustained growth without distress. The March FOMC statement and dot plot reinforced a patient policy stance amid sticky core PCE inflation near 2.8%. Barring unforeseen pre-meeting data surprises like softer April jobless claims, this consensus appears ironclad, with the rate decision announcement tomorrow at 2:00 PM ET as the key catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$186,217,826结束日期
2026-04-29市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.9% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data that has quelled rate-cut hopes. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs amid a 4.3% unemployment rate, signaling sustained growth without distress. The March FOMC statement and dot plot reinforced a patient policy stance amid sticky core PCE inflation near 2.8%. Barring unforeseen pre-meeting data surprises like softer April jobless claims, this consensus appears ironclad, with the rate decision announcement tomorrow at 2:00 PM ET as the key catalyst.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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