Recent U.S. inflation readings, including July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, have sustained concerns that price pressures remain elevated above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, supporting the market-implied 67.5% probability of no change and 30.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, recent communications have emphasized returning inflation to target without forward guidance, while labor market data showing 4.1% unemployment and solid payroll gains have not yet shifted the balance of risks decisively toward easing. The August CPI release scheduled for September 11 will provide key input ahead of the decision, alongside any further policy signals from officials. These factors position holding rates as the consensus outcome while leaving room for a modest tightening if incoming data reinforce inflation persistence.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于无变化 68%
加息25个基点 31%
下调25个基点 2.6%
加息50个基点以上 <1%
$1,393,665 交易量
$1,393,665 交易量
2026-10-28
下调50个基点以上
<1%
下调25个基点
3%
无变化
68%
加息25个基点
31%
加息50个基点以上
1%
无变化 68%
加息25个基点 31%
下调25个基点 2.6%
加息50个基点以上 <1%
$1,393,665 交易量
$1,393,665 交易量
2026-10-28
下调50个基点以上
$232,498 交易量
<1%
下调25个基点
$532,029 交易量
3%
无变化
$222,098 交易量
68%
加息25个基点
$249,651 交易量
31%
加息50个基点以上
$157,389 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation readings, including July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, have sustained concerns that price pressures remain elevated above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, supporting the market-implied 67.5% probability of no change and 30.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, recent communications have emphasized returning inflation to target without forward guidance, while labor market data showing 4.1% unemployment and solid payroll gains have not yet shifted the balance of risks decisively toward easing. The August CPI release scheduled for September 11 will provide key input ahead of the decision, alongside any further policy signals from officials. These factors position holding rates as the consensus outcome while leaving room for a modest tightening if incoming data reinforce inflation persistence.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
交易量
$1,393,665结束日期
2026-10-28市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation readings, including July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, have sustained concerns that price pressures remain elevated above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, supporting the market-implied 67.5% probability of no change and 30.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, recent communications have emphasized returning inflation to target without forward guidance, while labor market data showing 4.1% unemployment and solid payroll gains have not yet shifted the balance of risks decisively toward easing. The August CPI release scheduled for September 11 will provide key input ahead of the decision, alongside any further policy signals from officials. These factors position holding rates as the consensus outcome while leaving room for a modest tightening if incoming data reinforce inflation persistence.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$1,393,665结束日期
2026-10-28市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETRecent U.S. inflation readings, including July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, have sustained concerns that price pressures remain elevated above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, supporting the market-implied 67.5% probability of no change and 30.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, recent communications have emphasized returning inflation to target without forward guidance, while labor market data showing 4.1% unemployment and solid payroll gains have not yet shifted the balance of risks decisively toward easing. The August CPI release scheduled for September 11 will provide key input ahead of the decision, alongside any further policy signals from officials. These factors position holding rates as the consensus outcome while leaving room for a modest tightening if incoming data reinforce inflation persistence.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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