Current short-range forecasts from multiple models indicate thunderstorm activity over Chengdu on August 28, 2026, likely capping the daily maximum near 30–32 °C through increased cloud cover, evaporative cooling from rainfall, and reduced solar insolation. Historical August averages place the normal high around 31 °C in this humid subtropical monsoon climate, with substantial interannual variability driven by the strength and timing of convective systems. Differences among market outcomes hinge on the precise timing, intensity, and spatial coverage of storms, as well as any model disagreements in steering flow or boundary-layer moisture; lighter or delayed precipitation would favor the upper bins, while widespread heavy rain would push readings toward the middle or lower range. Updated runs from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration will refine these variables ahead of market resolution.