Recent KMA short-range forecasts and ensemble model runs indicate a highest temperature near 30°C for Incheon on August 26, driving the leading 33.5% implied probability, with 29°C close behind at 28% amid model spread on cloud timing and weak frontal influences. Persistent late-summer humidity and residual warm advection from earlier August heatwave conditions support daytime maxima in the 29–32°C range, while 20% precipitation chances introduce variability that could suppress peaks below 30°C or allow brief clearing to push toward 31°C. Trader consensus reflects this narrow uncertainty window two days out, consistent with climatological late-August averages around 31°C but tempered by evolving guidance on boundary-layer mixing and any overnight tropical night effects. Updated model cycles and KMA briefings over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月26日首尔(仁川)气温最高?
30°C 34%
29°C 28%
31°C 20%
27°C 17%
23°C or below
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
9%
27°C
17%
28°C
10%
29°C
28%
30°C
34%
31°C
20%
32°C
3%
33°C or higher
3%
30°C 34%
29°C 28%
31°C 20%
27°C 17%
23°C or below
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
9%
27°C
17%
28°C
10%
29°C
28%
30°C
34%
31°C
20%
32°C
3%
33°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间: Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent KMA short-range forecasts and ensemble model runs indicate a highest temperature near 30°C for Incheon on August 26, driving the leading 33.5% implied probability, with 29°C close behind at 28% amid model spread on cloud timing and weak frontal influences. Persistent late-summer humidity and residual warm advection from earlier August heatwave conditions support daytime maxima in the 29–32°C range, while 20% precipitation chances introduce variability that could suppress peaks below 30°C or allow brief clearing to push toward 31°C. Trader consensus reflects this narrow uncertainty window two days out, consistent with climatological late-August averages around 31°C but tempered by evolving guidance on boundary-layer mixing and any overnight tropical night effects. Updated model cycles and KMA briefings over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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