Recent model consensus and official guidance from the Wuhan Meteorological Station point to a peak temperature of 36–37°C on August 26, aligning with the market-implied odds favoring those outcomes at 29% and 32.5%. Persistent high humidity, light easterly winds, and mostly sunny conditions with isolated thunderstorm chances create narrow uncertainty bands around the daily maximum, as afternoon clearing or brief cloud cover can shift the peak by 1°C. Ensemble spreads in global models show limited divergence on steering patterns and boundary-layer mixing, while historical climatology for late August in the Yangtze River valley places typical highs near 33–34°C, underscoring the current heat anomaly. Traders will monitor updated CMA and ECMWF runs through the next 48 hours for any revisions to convective timing or dew-point forecasts.