Recent numerical weather prediction runs from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate a peak temperature near 33–34 °C for Chengdu on August 24, driven by clearing skies after several days of monsoon-related showers that have kept recent highs around 31–32 °C. Afternoon convective instability and variable cloud cover remain the dominant uncertainties, as scattered thunderstorms could cap insolation and limit surface heating while dry slots would allow stronger radiative warming in the Sichuan Basin. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 34–35 °C because ensemble spreads show only modest differences in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns, with higher outcomes (36 °C+) requiring unexpectedly clear, subsident conditions and lower ones tied to earlier or heavier precipitation. Updated model guidance ahead of the event will likely refine these probabilities.