**Wellington's late-winter temperatures remain anchored near the long-term August average of roughly 12°C for daily highs, with official guidance from MetService and NIWA pointing to a maximum near 12–14°C on August 22.** Recent model runs and short-range forecasts consistently show a high-pressure ridge or light southerly flow that limits daytime warming while preventing sharp cold outbreaks, keeping the most probable outcomes clustered around 14–15°C. Seasonal outlooks reinforce this picture, assigning the highest probability to near-average conditions across the Wellington region through the end of August, consistent with the absence of strong El Niño-driven anomalies or blocking highs that could push readings well above or below normal. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance heavily, as these consistently resolve in the 12–15°C band with only modest day-to-day variability expected before the market resolves.