**Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), issued August 20, place Tokyo’s maximum temperature on August 22 at 32°C under cloudy conditions with scattered showers.** This aligns with the market’s tight spread between the leading 31°C (34.0%) and 32°C (27.5%) outcomes. Seasonal context supports elevated readings: JMA’s summer outlook projected above-normal temperatures nationwide due to a strengthened Pacific High, consistent with typical late-August climatology where daily maxima average near 30.8°C. Key differentiating factors include the timing and coverage of showers, which can suppress peak heating by increasing cloud cover and evaporative cooling, versus any strengthening subsidence that could allow clearer intervals and higher readings. Tokyo’s urban heat island effect adds roughly 1–2°C to official observations relative to surrounding rural areas, while ensemble model spreads at this short lead time introduce small uncertainties around the exact peak. Traders appear to be balancing the current JMA point forecast of 32°C against the possibility of modest downward revision if showers arrive earlier or prove more widespread than anticipated.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月22日东京气温最高？
8月22日东京气温最高？
31°C 35%
32°C 28%
30°C 16%
33°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-08-22
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
6%
30°C
16%
31°C
35%
32°C
28%
33°C
11%
34°C
4%
35°C
3%
36°C or higher
1%
31°C 35%
32°C 28%
30°C 16%
33°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-08-22
26°C or below
$1,364 交易量
<1%
27°C
$13 交易量
1%
28°C
$30 交易量
4%
29°C
$2 交易量
6%
30°C
$38 交易量
16%
31°C
$128 交易量
35%
32°C
$26 交易量
28%
33°C
$14 交易量
11%
34°C
$20 交易量
4%
35°C
$20 交易量
3%
36°C or higher
$11 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), issued August 20, place Tokyo’s maximum temperature on August 22 at 32°C under cloudy conditions with scattered showers.** This aligns with the market’s tight spread between the leading 31°C (34.0%) and 32°C (27.5%) outcomes. Seasonal context supports elevated readings: JMA’s summer outlook projected above-normal temperatures nationwide due to a strengthened Pacific High, consistent with typical late-August climatology where daily maxima average near 30.8°C.
Key differentiating factors include the timing and coverage of showers, which can suppress peak heating by increasing cloud cover and evaporative cooling, versus any strengthening subsidence that could allow clearer intervals and higher readings. Tokyo’s urban heat island effect adds roughly 1–2°C to official observations relative to surrounding rural areas, while ensemble model spreads at this short lead time introduce small uncertainties around the exact peak. Traders appear to be balancing the current JMA point forecast of 32°C against the possibility of modest downward revision if showers arrive earlier or prove more widespread than anticipated.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$1,667结束日期
2026-08-22市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), issued August 20, place Tokyo’s maximum temperature on August 22 at 32°C under cloudy conditions with scattered showers.** This aligns with the market’s tight spread between the leading 31°C (34.0%) and 32°C (27.5%) outcomes. Seasonal context supports elevated readings: JMA’s summer outlook projected above-normal temperatures nationwide due to a strengthened Pacific High, consistent with typical late-August climatology where daily maxima average near 30.8°C.
Key differentiating factors include the timing and coverage of showers, which can suppress peak heating by increasing cloud cover and evaporative cooling, versus any strengthening subsidence that could allow clearer intervals and higher readings. Tokyo’s urban heat island effect adds roughly 1–2°C to official observations relative to surrounding rural areas, while ensemble model spreads at this short lead time introduce small uncertainties around the exact peak. Traders appear to be balancing the current JMA point forecast of 32°C against the possibility of modest downward revision if showers arrive earlier or prove more widespread than anticipated.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,667结束日期
2026-08-22市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ET**Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), issued August 20, place Tokyo’s maximum temperature on August 22 at 32°C under cloudy conditions with scattered showers.** This aligns with the market’s tight spread between the leading 31°C (34.0%) and 32°C (27.5%) outcomes. Seasonal context supports elevated readings: JMA’s summer outlook projected above-normal temperatures nationwide due to a strengthened Pacific High, consistent with typical late-August climatology where daily maxima average near 30.8°C. Key differentiating factors include the timing and coverage of showers, which can suppress peak heating by increasing cloud cover and evaporative cooling, versus any strengthening subsidence that could allow clearer intervals and higher readings. Tokyo’s urban heat island effect adds roughly 1–2°C to official observations relative to surrounding rural areas, while ensemble model spreads at this short lead time introduce small uncertainties around the exact peak. Traders appear to be balancing the current JMA point forecast of 32°C against the possibility of modest downward revision if showers arrive earlier or prove more widespread than anticipated.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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