Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models like ECMWF and AEMET show ensemble spreads centered on 37–38°C maximum temperatures for Madrid on August 1, consistent with the near-even market-implied odds for those outcomes. A persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge is promoting subsidence, clear skies, and strong daytime insolation across the Iberian Plateau, while light northeasterly flow limits advective cooling. Late-July observations at Retiro station (32–37°C) provide a warm baseline, but small differences in boundary-layer mixing, soil moisture, and urban heat-island effects can shift the peak by 1–2°C. With resolution two days away, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution model updates and AEMET guidance, which continue to bracket the most likely values near 37–38°C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月1日马德里气温最高？
8月1日马德里气温最高？
38°C 41%
37°C 39%
39°C 19%
36°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-08-01
34°C or below
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
5%
37°C
39%
38°C
41%
39°C
19%
40°C
1%
41°C
1%
42°C
1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
38°C 41%
37°C 39%
39°C 19%
36°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-08-01
34°C or below
$106 交易量
<1%
35°C
$104 交易量
1%
36°C
$0 交易量
5%
37°C
$100 交易量
39%
38°C
$141 交易量
41%
39°C
$188 交易量
19%
40°C
$44 交易量
1%
41°C
$39 交易量
1%
42°C
$77 交易量
1%
43°C
$43 交易量
<1%
44°C or higher
$67 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models like ECMWF and AEMET show ensemble spreads centered on 37–38°C maximum temperatures for Madrid on August 1, consistent with the near-even market-implied odds for those outcomes. A persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge is promoting subsidence, clear skies, and strong daytime insolation across the Iberian Plateau, while light northeasterly flow limits advective cooling. Late-July observations at Retiro station (32–37°C) provide a warm baseline, but small differences in boundary-layer mixing, soil moisture, and urban heat-island effects can shift the peak by 1–2°C. With resolution two days away, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution model updates and AEMET guidance, which continue to bracket the most likely values near 37–38°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$909结束日期
2026-08-01市场开放时间
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models like ECMWF and AEMET show ensemble spreads centered on 37–38°C maximum temperatures for Madrid on August 1, consistent with the near-even market-implied odds for those outcomes. A persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge is promoting subsidence, clear skies, and strong daytime insolation across the Iberian Plateau, while light northeasterly flow limits advective cooling. Late-July observations at Retiro station (32–37°C) provide a warm baseline, but small differences in boundary-layer mixing, soil moisture, and urban heat-island effects can shift the peak by 1–2°C. With resolution two days away, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution model updates and AEMET guidance, which continue to bracket the most likely values near 37–38°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$909结束日期
2026-08-01市场开放时间
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETRecent numerical weather prediction runs from models like ECMWF and AEMET show ensemble spreads centered on 37–38°C maximum temperatures for Madrid on August 1, consistent with the near-even market-implied odds for those outcomes. A persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge is promoting subsidence, clear skies, and strong daytime insolation across the Iberian Plateau, while light northeasterly flow limits advective cooling. Late-July observations at Retiro station (32–37°C) provide a warm baseline, but small differences in boundary-layer mixing, soil moisture, and urban heat-island effects can shift the peak by 1–2°C. With resolution two days away, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution model updates and AEMET guidance, which continue to bracket the most likely values near 37–38°C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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