Latest ensemble weather models from Brazil's INMET and international GFS/ECMWF point to a high near 29°C as the trader-favored outcome for São Paulo's March 25 peak temperature, with 22% implied probability edging out clustered 27-30°C bids amid tight 17-18% odds. This sentiment stems from persistent subtropical high-pressure ridges fostering clear skies and radiative heating, tempered by urban heat island effects in the metropolis boosting afternoon maxima by 1-2°C above rural baselines. Recent developments include a slight model convergence after yesterday's updates, downplaying 34+°C extremes (2.1%) despite El Niño's lingering warmth, while historical March 25 averages of 28°C and low cloudiness risk differentiate the narrow 26-31°C pack—watch INMET's 6 PM update for resolution shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 25?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 25?
29°C 22%
27°C 18%
28°C 18%
30°C 18%
24°C或以下
2%
25°C
16%
26°C
17%
27°C
18%
28°C
18%
29°C
22%
30°C
18%
31°C
17%
32°C
13%
33°C
11%
34°C or higher
2%
29°C 22%
27°C 18%
28°C 18%
30°C 18%
24°C或以下
2%
25°C
16%
26°C
17%
27°C
18%
28°C
18%
29°C
22%
30°C
18%
31°C
17%
32°C
13%
33°C
11%
34°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: Mar 21, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble weather models from Brazil's INMET and international GFS/ECMWF point to a high near 29°C as the trader-favored outcome for São Paulo's March 25 peak temperature, with 22% implied probability edging out clustered 27-30°C bids amid tight 17-18% odds. This sentiment stems from persistent subtropical high-pressure ridges fostering clear skies and radiative heating, tempered by urban heat island effects in the metropolis boosting afternoon maxima by 1-2°C above rural baselines. Recent developments include a slight model convergence after yesterday's updates, downplaying 34+°C extremes (2.1%) despite El Niño's lingering warmth, while historical March 25 averages of 28°C and low cloudiness risk differentiate the narrow 26-31°C pack—watch INMET's 6 PM update for resolution shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题