Model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS project Shenzhen's March 25 high between 23-28°C, driving the fragmented trader odds with 26°C edging ahead at 18.5% amid a high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies and solar heating, tempered by persistent southerly sea breezes from the South China Sea. Historical data shows late-March averages around 24°C, but urban heat island effects in this megacity often push peaks 1-2°C above rural baselines, favoring 25-26°C outcomes. Recent CMA updates indicate low rain risk (10-20%), yet slight cloud variability and weakening El Niño residuals introduce uncertainty, explaining the slim margins separating 23-28°C probabilities. Traders eye afternoon model refreshes for resolution clues.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 25?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 25?
26°C 19%
23°C 18%
24°C 18%
25°C 18%
20°C or below
2%
21°C
13%
22°C
16%
23°C
18%
24°C
18%
25°C
18%
26°C
19%
27°C
12%
28°C
17%
29°C
14%
30°C or higher
14%
26°C 19%
23°C 18%
24°C 18%
25°C 18%
20°C or below
2%
21°C
13%
22°C
16%
23°C
18%
24°C
18%
25°C
18%
26°C
19%
27°C
12%
28°C
17%
29°C
14%
30°C or higher
14%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: Mar 21, 2026, 6:20 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS project Shenzhen's March 25 high between 23-28°C, driving the fragmented trader odds with 26°C edging ahead at 18.5% amid a high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies and solar heating, tempered by persistent southerly sea breezes from the South China Sea. Historical data shows late-March averages around 24°C, but urban heat island effects in this megacity often push peaks 1-2°C above rural baselines, favoring 25-26°C outcomes. Recent CMA updates indicate low rain risk (10-20%), yet slight cloud variability and weakening El Niño residuals introduce uncertainty, explaining the slim margins separating 23-28°C probabilities. Traders eye afternoon model refreshes for resolution clues.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题