Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 21°C on April 18, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data showing midday peaks at this level under mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light winds. Hourly readings from central Tokyo stations, including the official observatory, confirm no exceedance, aligning with historical April averages of 19–20°C and current atmospheric patterns favoring stable mildness over warming. Final resolution hinges on JMA's end-of-day summary, typically released shortly after midnight. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from clearing skies or a minor data revision from peripheral sensors, though cooling evening trends make higher outcomes unlikely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4月18日东京气温最高？
4月18日东京气温最高？
21°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$107,616 交易量
$107,616 交易量
2026-04-18
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
21°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$107,616 交易量
$107,616 交易量
2026-04-18
13°C or below
$2,664 交易量
No
14°C
$2,437 交易量
No
15°C
$1,580 交易量
No
16°C
$1,779 交易量
No
17°C
$2,640 交易量
No
18°C
$5,039 交易量
No
19°C
$8,464 交易量
No
20°C
$14,266 交易量
No
21°C
$32,225 交易量
Yes
22°C
$17,066 交易量
No
23°C or higher
$19,457 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 21°C on April 18, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data showing midday peaks at this level under mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light winds. Hourly readings from central Tokyo stations, including the official observatory, confirm no exceedance, aligning with historical April averages of 19–20°C and current atmospheric patterns favoring stable mildness over warming. Final resolution hinges on JMA's end-of-day summary, typically released shortly after midnight. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from clearing skies or a minor data revision from peripheral sensors, though cooling evening trends make higher outcomes unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
交易量
$107,616结束日期
2026-04-18市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 21°C on April 18, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data showing midday peaks at this level under mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light winds. Hourly readings from central Tokyo stations, including the official observatory, confirm no exceedance, aligning with historical April averages of 19–20°C and current atmospheric patterns favoring stable mildness over warming. Final resolution hinges on JMA's end-of-day summary, typically released shortly after midnight. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from clearing skies or a minor data revision from peripheral sensors, though cooling evening trends make higher outcomes unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$107,616结束日期
2026-04-18市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 21°C on April 18, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data showing midday peaks at this level under mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light winds. Hourly readings from central Tokyo stations, including the official observatory, confirm no exceedance, aligning with historical April averages of 19–20°C and current atmospheric patterns favoring stable mildness over warming. Final resolution hinges on JMA's end-of-day summary, typically released shortly after midnight. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from clearing skies or a minor data revision from peripheral sensors, though cooling evening trends make higher outcomes unlikely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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