Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 41.5% implied probability to a 21°C high in Tokyo on April 18, closely trailed by 20°C at 24.5% and 22°C at 21%, reflecting the latest Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts under a high-pressure ridge fostering mild spring warming with partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. Recent observations show a high of 21°C on April 16 amid sunny conditions, cooling to 18°C on April 17 with increased cloudiness, aligning with above-normal April temperatures driven by ENSO-neutral patterns boosting regional heat. Inherent forecast uncertainty stems from model divergences on afternoon cloud development, potentially capping peaks at 20°C or allowing 22°C; extremes below 18°C or above 23°C face climatological barriers, as mid-April historical averages hover near 19°C. JMA's evening update may refine these odds ahead of resolution based on official Tokyo station measurements.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4月18日东京气温最高？
4月18日东京气温最高？
21°C 42%
20°C 25%
22°C 24%
19°C 8%
最新
$16,637 交易量
最新
$16,637 交易量
2026-04-18
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
8%
20°C
25%
21°C
42%
22°C
24%
23°C or higher
3%
21°C 42%
20°C 25%
22°C 24%
19°C 8%
最新
$16,637 交易量
最新
$16,637 交易量
2026-04-18
13°C or below
$1,678 交易量
<1%
14°C
$2,431 交易量
<1%
15°C
$1,574 交易量
<1%
16°C
$1,128 交易量
<1%
17°C
$864 交易量
1%
18°C
$2,325 交易量
2%
19°C
$1,955 交易量
8%
20°C
$879 交易量
25%
21°C
$891 交易量
42%
22°C
$1,155 交易量
24%
23°C or higher
$1,769 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 41.5% implied probability to a 21°C high in Tokyo on April 18, closely trailed by 20°C at 24.5% and 22°C at 21%, reflecting the latest Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts under a high-pressure ridge fostering mild spring warming with partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. Recent observations show a high of 21°C on April 16 amid sunny conditions, cooling to 18°C on April 17 with increased cloudiness, aligning with above-normal April temperatures driven by ENSO-neutral patterns boosting regional heat. Inherent forecast uncertainty stems from model divergences on afternoon cloud development, potentially capping peaks at 20°C or allowing 22°C; extremes below 18°C or above 23°C face climatological barriers, as mid-April historical averages hover near 19°C. JMA's evening update may refine these odds ahead of resolution based on official Tokyo station measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
交易量
$16,637结束日期
2026-04-18市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 41.5% implied probability to a 21°C high in Tokyo on April 18, closely trailed by 20°C at 24.5% and 22°C at 21%, reflecting the latest Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts under a high-pressure ridge fostering mild spring warming with partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. Recent observations show a high of 21°C on April 16 amid sunny conditions, cooling to 18°C on April 17 with increased cloudiness, aligning with above-normal April temperatures driven by ENSO-neutral patterns boosting regional heat. Inherent forecast uncertainty stems from model divergences on afternoon cloud development, potentially capping peaks at 20°C or allowing 22°C; extremes below 18°C or above 23°C face climatological barriers, as mid-April historical averages hover near 19°C. JMA's evening update may refine these odds ahead of resolution based on official Tokyo station measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$16,637结束日期
2026-04-18市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 41.5% implied probability to a 21°C high in Tokyo on April 18, closely trailed by 20°C at 24.5% and 22°C at 21%, reflecting the latest Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts under a high-pressure ridge fostering mild spring warming with partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. Recent observations show a high of 21°C on April 16 amid sunny conditions, cooling to 18°C on April 17 with increased cloudiness, aligning with above-normal April temperatures driven by ENSO-neutral patterns boosting regional heat. Inherent forecast uncertainty stems from model divergences on afternoon cloud development, potentially capping peaks at 20°C or allowing 22°C; extremes below 18°C or above 23°C face climatological barriers, as mid-April historical averages hover near 19°C. JMA's evening update may refine these odds ahead of resolution based on official Tokyo station measurements.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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