Recent model consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international ensembles points to a minimum temperature near 23–24°C in Tokyo on September 22, supporting the closely matched market-implied odds of 41.5% for 24°C and 36% for 23°C. Persistent moisture and northwest winds following heavy rain on September 21 are moderating overnight cooling, while partial clearing and lighter winds during the early morning hours limit further drops below 22°C. Historical late-September climatology shows typical lows around 19–21°C, but the current post-frontal setup favors the higher end of that range. Updated short-range guidance and any late shifts in cloud cover or wind speed remain the key variables that could tilt resolution between the two leading outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月22日东京气温最低？
9月22日东京气温最低？
24°C 41%
23°C 34%
22°C 17%
21°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-22
18°C或以下
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
3%
21°C
5%
22°C
12%
23°C
34%
24°C
41%
25°C
5%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C或更高
1%
24°C 41%
23°C 34%
22°C 17%
21°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-22
18°C或以下
$0 交易量
1%
19°C
$86 交易量
1%
20°C
$102 交易量
3%
21°C
$66 交易量
5%
22°C
$151 交易量
12%
23°C
$628 交易量
34%
24°C
$427 交易量
41%
25°C
$271 交易量
5%
26°C
$0 交易量
2%
27°C
$0 交易量
2%
28°C或更高
$0 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international ensembles points to a minimum temperature near 23–24°C in Tokyo on September 22, supporting the closely matched market-implied odds of 41.5% for 24°C and 36% for 23°C. Persistent moisture and northwest winds following heavy rain on September 21 are moderating overnight cooling, while partial clearing and lighter winds during the early morning hours limit further drops below 22°C. Historical late-September climatology shows typical lows around 19–21°C, but the current post-frontal setup favors the higher end of that range. Updated short-range guidance and any late shifts in cloud cover or wind speed remain the key variables that could tilt resolution between the two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$1,730结束日期
2026-09-22市场开放时间
Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international ensembles points to a minimum temperature near 23–24°C in Tokyo on September 22, supporting the closely matched market-implied odds of 41.5% for 24°C and 36% for 23°C. Persistent moisture and northwest winds following heavy rain on September 21 are moderating overnight cooling, while partial clearing and lighter winds during the early morning hours limit further drops below 22°C. Historical late-September climatology shows typical lows around 19–21°C, but the current post-frontal setup favors the higher end of that range. Updated short-range guidance and any late shifts in cloud cover or wind speed remain the key variables that could tilt resolution between the two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,730结束日期
2026-09-22市场开放时间
Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ETRecent model consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international ensembles points to a minimum temperature near 23–24°C in Tokyo on September 22, supporting the closely matched market-implied odds of 41.5% for 24°C and 36% for 23°C. Persistent moisture and northwest winds following heavy rain on September 21 are moderating overnight cooling, while partial clearing and lighter winds during the early morning hours limit further drops below 22°C. Historical late-September climatology shows typical lows around 19–21°C, but the current post-frontal setup favors the higher end of that range. Updated short-range guidance and any late shifts in cloud cover or wind speed remain the key variables that could tilt resolution between the two leading outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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