**Current forecasts position 12°C as the most probable high for Wellington on July 20, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 58% implied probability.** Mid-July places Wellington in peak Southern Hemisphere winter, when climatological daily maxima average 12–13°C under typical westerly flow and marine moderation from the Tasman Sea and Cook Strait. The latest extended forecast from official sources projects a 54°F (12.2°C) high on July 20 under mostly cloudy skies with light winds around 8 mph, consistent with near-average or slightly below-average conditions noted in seasonal outlooks. Model consensus shows limited potential for warmer air advection or clear-sky radiative warming that would push readings to 13–14°C, while cold outbreaks capable of dropping maxima to 11°C or lower remain possible but less favored in the immediate run. Recent days have featured highs in the 13–14°C range, but the approaching pattern favors stabilization around the 12°C threshold. Updated model guidance closer to the date will be the key variable for traders, as small shifts in cloud cover or wind direction can alter the realized maximum within the narrow winter range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7月20日惠灵顿的最高温度？
7月20日惠灵顿的最高温度？
12°C 100.0%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$65,141 交易量
$65,141 交易量
2026-07-20
6°C or below
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$65,141 交易量
$65,141 交易量
2026-07-20
6°C or below
$348 交易量
No
7°C
$516 交易量
No
8°C
$641 交易量
No
9°C
$1,504 交易量
No
10°C
$3,562 交易量
No
11°C
$23,425 交易量
No
12°C
$13,203 交易量
Yes
13°C
$13,052 交易量
No
14°C
$5,420 交易量
No
15°C
$2,866 交易量
No
16°C or higher
$604 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts position 12°C as the most probable high for Wellington on July 20, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 58% implied probability.**
Mid-July places Wellington in peak Southern Hemisphere winter, when climatological daily maxima average 12–13°C under typical westerly flow and marine moderation from the Tasman Sea and Cook Strait. The latest extended forecast from official sources projects a 54°F (12.2°C) high on July 20 under mostly cloudy skies with light winds around 8 mph, consistent with near-average or slightly below-average conditions noted in seasonal outlooks. Model consensus shows limited potential for warmer air advection or clear-sky radiative warming that would push readings to 13–14°C, while cold outbreaks capable of dropping maxima to 11°C or lower remain possible but less favored in the immediate run. Recent days have featured highs in the 13–14°C range, but the approaching pattern favors stabilization around the 12°C threshold. Updated model guidance closer to the date will be the key variable for traders, as small shifts in cloud cover or wind direction can alter the realized maximum within the narrow winter range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 18, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$65,141结束日期
2026-07-20市场开放时间
Jul 18, 2026, 12:03 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts position 12°C as the most probable high for Wellington on July 20, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 58% implied probability.**
Mid-July places Wellington in peak Southern Hemisphere winter, when climatological daily maxima average 12–13°C under typical westerly flow and marine moderation from the Tasman Sea and Cook Strait. The latest extended forecast from official sources projects a 54°F (12.2°C) high on July 20 under mostly cloudy skies with light winds around 8 mph, consistent with near-average or slightly below-average conditions noted in seasonal outlooks. Model consensus shows limited potential for warmer air advection or clear-sky radiative warming that would push readings to 13–14°C, while cold outbreaks capable of dropping maxima to 11°C or lower remain possible but less favored in the immediate run. Recent days have featured highs in the 13–14°C range, but the approaching pattern favors stabilization around the 12°C threshold. Updated model guidance closer to the date will be the key variable for traders, as small shifts in cloud cover or wind direction can alter the realized maximum within the narrow winter range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$65,141结束日期
2026-07-20市场开放时间
Jul 18, 2026, 12:03 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
**Current forecasts position 12°C as the most probable high for Wellington on July 20, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 58% implied probability.** Mid-July places Wellington in peak Southern Hemisphere winter, when climatological daily maxima average 12–13°C under typical westerly flow and marine moderation from the Tasman Sea and Cook Strait. The latest extended forecast from official sources projects a 54°F (12.2°C) high on July 20 under mostly cloudy skies with light winds around 8 mph, consistent with near-average or slightly below-average conditions noted in seasonal outlooks. Model consensus shows limited potential for warmer air advection or clear-sky radiative warming that would push readings to 13–14°C, while cold outbreaks capable of dropping maxima to 11°C or lower remain possible but less favored in the immediate run. Recent days have featured highs in the 13–14°C range, but the approaching pattern favors stabilization around the 12°C threshold. Updated model guidance closer to the date will be the key variable for traders, as small shifts in cloud cover or wind direction can alter the realized maximum within the narrow winter range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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