Traders have aligned on a 25°C minimum for Hong Kong on August 2 because official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirmed that exact figure as the daily low. Subtropical summer conditions, including high humidity, light winds, and urban heat retention, typically produce overnight lows in the mid-20s°C during early August, consistent with long-term climatological averages from the same agency. Ensemble forecast models run in the preceding days showed strong consensus around this range with limited spread. The only realistic scenarios that could shift the outcome involve post-event data corrections or station-specific reanalysis, though such revisions occur infrequently for verified minimum temperatures.