Trader consensus favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes at 64% implied probability for the April 13-19 period, driven by USGS data showing none worldwide through April 16 despite a recent M5.7 event and aftershocks near Silver Springs, Nevada, on April 14—all below the threshold. With roughly half the week elapsed and no seismic swarms or strain signals on major fault lines indicating imminent large events, this aligns with historical global baselines of about 0.4-0.9 M6.5+ quakes per week under the Gutenberg-Richter distribution. Unpredictable tectonic releases maintain uncertainty, but continuous USGS monitoring will provide real-time updates through April 19 UTC resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 13 - 19?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 13 - 19?
0 64%
1 27%
2 8%
3 2.7%
$29,451 交易量
$29,451 交易量
2026-04-19
0
64%
1
27%
2
8%
3
3%
4
1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
0 64%
1 27%
2 8%
3 2.7%
$29,451 交易量
$29,451 交易量
2026-04-19
0
$9,748 交易量
64%
1
$6,860 交易量
27%
2
$3,690 交易量
8%
3
$1,414 交易量
3%
4
$2,602 交易量
1%
5
$2,139 交易量
<1%
>5
$2,997 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes at 64% implied probability for the April 13-19 period, driven by USGS data showing none worldwide through April 16 despite a recent M5.7 event and aftershocks near Silver Springs, Nevada, on April 14—all below the threshold. With roughly half the week elapsed and no seismic swarms or strain signals on major fault lines indicating imminent large events, this aligns with historical global baselines of about 0.4-0.9 M6.5+ quakes per week under the Gutenberg-Richter distribution. Unpredictable tectonic releases maintain uncertainty, but continuous USGS monitoring will provide real-time updates through April 19 UTC resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
交易量
$29,451结束日期
2026-04-19市场开放时间
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes at 64% implied probability for the April 13-19 period, driven by USGS data showing none worldwide through April 16 despite a recent M5.7 event and aftershocks near Silver Springs, Nevada, on April 14—all below the threshold. With roughly half the week elapsed and no seismic swarms or strain signals on major fault lines indicating imminent large events, this aligns with historical global baselines of about 0.4-0.9 M6.5+ quakes per week under the Gutenberg-Richter distribution. Unpredictable tectonic releases maintain uncertainty, but continuous USGS monitoring will provide real-time updates through April 19 UTC resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$29,451结束日期
2026-04-19市场开放时间
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes at 64% implied probability for the April 13-19 period, driven by USGS data showing none worldwide through April 16 despite a recent M5.7 event and aftershocks near Silver Springs, Nevada, on April 14—all below the threshold. With roughly half the week elapsed and no seismic swarms or strain signals on major fault lines indicating imminent large events, this aligns with historical global baselines of about 0.4-0.9 M6.5+ quakes per week under the Gutenberg-Richter distribution. Unpredictable tectonic releases maintain uncertainty, but continuous USGS monitoring will provide real-time updates through April 19 UTC resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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