Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability for zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13–19, reflecting USGS seismic catalog data showing none in the first three days of the period and none globally since the M7.4 near Ternate, Indonesia on April 1. This aligns with historical baselines from USGS statistics, where M6.0–6.9 events average 136 annually (~2.6 per week), but M6.5+ occurrences are rarer, yielding an expected count of ~0.4–0.5 per week under a Poisson process per the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. Current global seismicity remains at normal levels with no elevated swarms, fault stress indicators, or subduction zone hotspots per USGS monitoring. New events could shift odds rapidly; watch daily USGS updates through April 19 resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 13 - 19?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 13 - 19?
0 64%
1 26%
2 8%
3 2.7%
$29,372 交易量
$29,372 交易量
2026-04-19
0
64%
1
26%
2
8%
3
3%
4
1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
0 64%
1 26%
2 8%
3 2.7%
$29,372 交易量
$29,372 交易量
2026-04-19
0
$9,717 交易量
64%
1
$6,860 交易量
26%
2
$3,690 交易量
8%
3
$1,414 交易量
3%
4
$2,602 交易量
1%
5
$2,139 交易量
<1%
>5
$2,997 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability for zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13–19, reflecting USGS seismic catalog data showing none in the first three days of the period and none globally since the M7.4 near Ternate, Indonesia on April 1. This aligns with historical baselines from USGS statistics, where M6.0–6.9 events average 136 annually (~2.6 per week), but M6.5+ occurrences are rarer, yielding an expected count of ~0.4–0.5 per week under a Poisson process per the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. Current global seismicity remains at normal levels with no elevated swarms, fault stress indicators, or subduction zone hotspots per USGS monitoring. New events could shift odds rapidly; watch daily USGS updates through April 19 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
交易量
$29,372结束日期
2026-04-19市场开放时间
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability for zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13–19, reflecting USGS seismic catalog data showing none in the first three days of the period and none globally since the M7.4 near Ternate, Indonesia on April 1. This aligns with historical baselines from USGS statistics, where M6.0–6.9 events average 136 annually (~2.6 per week), but M6.5+ occurrences are rarer, yielding an expected count of ~0.4–0.5 per week under a Poisson process per the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. Current global seismicity remains at normal levels with no elevated swarms, fault stress indicators, or subduction zone hotspots per USGS monitoring. New events could shift odds rapidly; watch daily USGS updates through April 19 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$29,372结束日期
2026-04-19市场开放时间
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability for zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13–19, reflecting USGS seismic catalog data showing none in the first three days of the period and none globally since the M7.4 near Ternate, Indonesia on April 1. This aligns with historical baselines from USGS statistics, where M6.0–6.9 events average 136 annually (~2.6 per week), but M6.5+ occurrences are rarer, yielding an expected count of ~0.4–0.5 per week under a Poisson process per the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. Current global seismicity remains at normal levels with no elevated swarms, fault stress indicators, or subduction zone hotspots per USGS monitoring. New events could shift odds rapidly; watch daily USGS updates through April 19 resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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