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2026年美联储降息多少次?

Market icon

2026年美联储降息多少次?

2(50个基点) 27%

1 (25 个基点) 27%

3(75 个基点) 18%

0(0 基点) 15.8%

Polymarket

$8,854,606 交易量

2(50个基点) 27%

1 (25 个基点) 27%

3(75 个基点) 18%

0(0 基点) 15.8%

Polymarket

$8,854,606 交易量

0(0 基点)

$1,796,842 交易量

16%

1 (25 个基点)

$592,855 交易量

27%

2(50个基点)

$543,412 交易量

27%

3(75 个基点)

$404,517 交易量

18%

4(100 基点)

$395,382 交易量

4%

5(125个基点)

$363,933 交易量

2%

6(150个基点)

$1,413,195 交易量

2%

分组项标题:7(175 个基点)

$432,878 交易量

1%

8(200 个基点)

$537,708 交易量

1%

9(225 个基点)

$391,761 交易量

1%

分组项标题:10(250 个基点)

$421,464 交易量

1%

11 (275 bps)

$452,235 交易量

<1%

12+ (300+ 基点)

$1,108,423 交易量

2%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$8,854,606
结束日期
Dec 31, 2026
市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2026年美联储降息多少次?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 13 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"1 (25 个基点)",概率为 27%,其次是"2(50个基点)",概率为 27%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 27¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 27%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"2026年美联储降息多少次?"已产生 $8.9 million 的总交易量(自Sep 29, 2025市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2026年美联储降息多少次?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 13 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2026年美联储降息多少次?"的当前领先者是"1 (25 个基点)",概率为 27%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 27%。紧随其后的结果是"2(50个基点)",概率为 27%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2026年美联储降息多少次?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。