With only 39 confirmed tornadoes through mid-April per National Weather Service preliminary surveys—well below the 1991–2020 monthly average of 182—trader consensus clusters around 140–199 total, reflecting a slow start but recent upticks from outbreaks on April 13–14 producing multiple EF2–EF3 supercell-spawned twisters across Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, and Wisconsin. Differentiating factors include Storm Prediction Center outlooks signaling continued high risk in the southern Plains and Midwest through late April, driven by persistent upper-level troughs, Gulf moisture surges, and dryline convection favoring tornado alley; however, a potential shift to zonal flow could cap totals below 170, while clustered supercell days might push toward 200+. Final NOAA-confirmed counts, accounting for survey revisions where ~65% of reports verify, resolve the market amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4月份美国有多少次龙卷风？
4月份美国有多少次龙卷风？
140–169 28%
170–199 23%
290–319 16%
200–229 10%
$38,432 交易量
$38,432 交易量
2026-05-10
少于140
8%
140–169
30%
170–199
33%
200–229
10%
230–259
5%
260–289
18%
290–319
13%
320–350
38%
350+
6%
140–169 28%
170–199 23%
290–319 16%
200–229 10%
$38,432 交易量
$38,432 交易量
2026-05-10
少于140
$8,909 交易量
8%
140–169
$6,632 交易量
30%
170–199
$427 交易量
33%
200–229
$95 交易量
10%
230–259
$92 交易量
5%
260–289
$128 交易量
18%
290–319
$258 交易量
13%
320–350
$154 交易量
38%
350+
$21,736 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.With only 39 confirmed tornadoes through mid-April per National Weather Service preliminary surveys—well below the 1991–2020 monthly average of 182—trader consensus clusters around 140–199 total, reflecting a slow start but recent upticks from outbreaks on April 13–14 producing multiple EF2–EF3 supercell-spawned twisters across Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, and Wisconsin. Differentiating factors include Storm Prediction Center outlooks signaling continued high risk in the southern Plains and Midwest through late April, driven by persistent upper-level troughs, Gulf moisture surges, and dryline convection favoring tornado alley; however, a potential shift to zonal flow could cap totals below 170, while clustered supercell days might push toward 200+. Final NOAA-confirmed counts, accounting for survey revisions where ~65% of reports verify, resolve the market amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
交易量
$38,432结束日期
2026-05-10市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.With only 39 confirmed tornadoes through mid-April per National Weather Service preliminary surveys—well below the 1991–2020 monthly average of 182—trader consensus clusters around 140–199 total, reflecting a slow start but recent upticks from outbreaks on April 13–14 producing multiple EF2–EF3 supercell-spawned twisters across Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, and Wisconsin. Differentiating factors include Storm Prediction Center outlooks signaling continued high risk in the southern Plains and Midwest through late April, driven by persistent upper-level troughs, Gulf moisture surges, and dryline convection favoring tornado alley; however, a potential shift to zonal flow could cap totals below 170, while clustered supercell days might push toward 200+. Final NOAA-confirmed counts, accounting for survey revisions where ~65% of reports verify, resolve the market amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$38,432结束日期
2026-05-10市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With only 39 confirmed tornadoes through mid-April per National Weather Service preliminary surveys—well below the 1991–2020 monthly average of 182—trader consensus clusters around 140–199 total, reflecting a slow start but recent upticks from outbreaks on April 13–14 producing multiple EF2–EF3 supercell-spawned twisters across Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, and Wisconsin. Differentiating factors include Storm Prediction Center outlooks signaling continued high risk in the southern Plains and Midwest through late April, driven by persistent upper-level troughs, Gulf moisture surges, and dryline convection favoring tornado alley; however, a potential shift to zonal flow could cap totals below 170, while clustered supercell days might push toward 200+. Final NOAA-confirmed counts, accounting for survey revisions where ~65% of reports verify, resolve the market amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题