With 42 preliminary tornadoes confirmed through April 15 via National Weather Service surveys—driven by outbreaks on April 2 (14 tornadoes across Texas to Indiana) and April 13-15 (17 in the Midwest, including EF3 in Wisconsin)—the U.S. sits at a moderate pace toward the 1991-2020 April average of 182. Trader sentiment clusters in 140-199 range (60% combined market-implied probability) due to uncertainty in late-month severe setups, as Storm Prediction Center outlooks show 15-30% severe risks through April 18 amid strong wind shear and Gulf moisture return boosting supercell potential. Higher bins like 320+ (5.5%) hinge on multi-day outbreaks needing peak convective available potential energy (CAPE) overlaps in Plains/Midwest, while sub-140 (<140 at 8%) assumes pattern shifts suppressing ingredients; daily SPC updates will clarify trajectories.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4月份美国有多少次龙卷风？
4月份美国有多少次龙卷风？
170–199 34%
140–169 28%
290–319 16%
200–229 11%
$38,439 交易量
$38,439 交易量
2026-05-10
少于140
10%
140–169
30%
170–199
34%
200–229
11%
230–259
5%
260–289
20%
290–319
13%
320–350
19%
350+
6%
170–199 34%
140–169 28%
290–319 16%
200–229 11%
$38,439 交易量
$38,439 交易量
2026-05-10
少于140
$8,916 交易量
10%
140–169
$6,632 交易量
30%
170–199
$427 交易量
34%
200–229
$95 交易量
11%
230–259
$92 交易量
5%
260–289
$128 交易量
20%
290–319
$258 交易量
13%
320–350
$154 交易量
19%
350+
$21,736 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.With 42 preliminary tornadoes confirmed through April 15 via National Weather Service surveys—driven by outbreaks on April 2 (14 tornadoes across Texas to Indiana) and April 13-15 (17 in the Midwest, including EF3 in Wisconsin)—the U.S. sits at a moderate pace toward the 1991-2020 April average of 182. Trader sentiment clusters in 140-199 range (60% combined market-implied probability) due to uncertainty in late-month severe setups, as Storm Prediction Center outlooks show 15-30% severe risks through April 18 amid strong wind shear and Gulf moisture return boosting supercell potential. Higher bins like 320+ (5.5%) hinge on multi-day outbreaks needing peak convective available potential energy (CAPE) overlaps in Plains/Midwest, while sub-140 (<140 at 8%) assumes pattern shifts suppressing ingredients; daily SPC updates will clarify trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
交易量
$38,439结束日期
2026-05-10市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.With 42 preliminary tornadoes confirmed through April 15 via National Weather Service surveys—driven by outbreaks on April 2 (14 tornadoes across Texas to Indiana) and April 13-15 (17 in the Midwest, including EF3 in Wisconsin)—the U.S. sits at a moderate pace toward the 1991-2020 April average of 182. Trader sentiment clusters in 140-199 range (60% combined market-implied probability) due to uncertainty in late-month severe setups, as Storm Prediction Center outlooks show 15-30% severe risks through April 18 amid strong wind shear and Gulf moisture return boosting supercell potential. Higher bins like 320+ (5.5%) hinge on multi-day outbreaks needing peak convective available potential energy (CAPE) overlaps in Plains/Midwest, while sub-140 (<140 at 8%) assumes pattern shifts suppressing ingredients; daily SPC updates will clarify trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$38,439结束日期
2026-05-10市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With 42 preliminary tornadoes confirmed through April 15 via National Weather Service surveys—driven by outbreaks on April 2 (14 tornadoes across Texas to Indiana) and April 13-15 (17 in the Midwest, including EF3 in Wisconsin)—the U.S. sits at a moderate pace toward the 1991-2020 April average of 182. Trader sentiment clusters in 140-199 range (60% combined market-implied probability) due to uncertainty in late-month severe setups, as Storm Prediction Center outlooks show 15-30% severe risks through April 18 amid strong wind shear and Gulf moisture return boosting supercell potential. Higher bins like 320+ (5.5%) hinge on multi-day outbreaks needing peak convective available potential energy (CAPE) overlaps in Plains/Midwest, while sub-140 (<140 at 8%) assumes pattern shifts suppressing ingredients; daily SPC updates will clarify trajectories.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题