The US-Israel-Iran conflict, triggered by February 28 airstrikes assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, persists amid a fragile ceasefire nearing expiration as of April 16. US forces have imposed a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting shipping, while Israel recently struck Iranian petrochemical sites including South Pars and Asaluyeh; Iran retaliated with missile attacks on Tel Aviv and Haifa. Indirect ceasefire talks in Pakistan collapsed last week, and Pentagon briefings confirm ongoing operations, with warnings from officials like Pete Hegseth of potential strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Diplomatic channels with Gulf states and Israel-Lebanon summits offer de-escalation paths, but deadlock raises escalation risks ahead of the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$42,351,034 交易量
2026-04-07
4月7日
87%
4月15日
87%
4月30日
88%
5月15日
91%
6月30日
93%
12月31日
98%
$42,351,034 交易量
4月7日
$15,290,748 交易量
87%
4月15日
$9,011,861 交易量
87%
4月30日
$3,888,511 交易量
88%
5月15日
$3,414,831 交易量
91%
6月30日
$2,864,190 交易量
93%
12月31日
$2,721,957 交易量
98%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel-Iran conflict, triggered by February 28 airstrikes assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, persists amid a fragile ceasefire nearing expiration as of April 16. US forces have imposed a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting shipping, while Israel recently struck Iranian petrochemical sites including South Pars and Asaluyeh; Iran retaliated with missile attacks on Tel Aviv and Haifa. Indirect ceasefire talks in Pakistan collapsed last week, and Pentagon briefings confirm ongoing operations, with warnings from officials like Pete Hegseth of potential strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Diplomatic channels with Gulf states and Israel-Lebanon summits offer de-escalation paths, but deadlock raises escalation risks ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ET
交易量
$42,351,034结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel-Iran conflict, triggered by February 28 airstrikes assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, persists amid a fragile ceasefire nearing expiration as of April 16. US forces have imposed a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting shipping, while Israel recently struck Iranian petrochemical sites including South Pars and Asaluyeh; Iran retaliated with missile attacks on Tel Aviv and Haifa. Indirect ceasefire talks in Pakistan collapsed last week, and Pentagon briefings confirm ongoing operations, with warnings from officials like Pete Hegseth of potential strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Diplomatic channels with Gulf states and Israel-Lebanon summits offer de-escalation paths, but deadlock raises escalation risks ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
交易量
$42,351,034结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US-Israel-Iran conflict, triggered by February 28 airstrikes assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, persists amid a fragile ceasefire nearing expiration as of April 16. US forces have imposed a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting shipping, while Israel recently struck Iranian petrochemical sites including South Pars and Asaluyeh; Iran retaliated with missile attacks on Tel Aviv and Haifa. Indirect ceasefire talks in Pakistan collapsed last week, and Pentagon briefings confirm ongoing operations, with warnings from officials like Pete Hegseth of potential strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Diplomatic channels with Gulf states and Israel-Lebanon summits offer de-escalation paths, but deadlock raises escalation risks ahead of the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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