Trader consensus heavily favors the Iran-Israel/US conflict persisting beyond near-term dates, with over 97% implied probability for resolution no earlier than December 31, driven by Iran's April 6 rejection of a US-proposed ceasefire to reopen the Strait of Hormuz amid an ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports that has spiked global energy prices. Recent escalations include Chinese and Iranian tankers challenging the blockade on April 14, Israeli airstrikes in the region, and fragile "productive" US-Iran talks overshadowed by mutual threats and no-confidence in de-escalation signals. Pakistan's proposal for a second round of negotiations offers a potential diplomatic off-ramp, though historical patterns of stalled indirect talks and proxy actions suggest prolonged stalemate barring major concessions or unilateral withdrawals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$42,055,491 交易量
2026-06-30
4月7日
87%
4月15日
86%
4月30日
89%
5月15日
93%
6月30日
96%
12月31日
97%
$42,055,491 交易量
4月7日
$15,168,682 交易量
87%
4月15日
$8,954,802 交易量
86%
4月30日
$3,830,691 交易量
89%
5月15日
$3,408,882 交易量
93%
6月30日
$2,833,150 交易量
96%
12月31日
$2,701,292 交易量
97%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.Trader consensus heavily favors the Iran-Israel/US conflict persisting beyond near-term dates, with over 97% implied probability for resolution no earlier than December 31, driven by Iran's April 6 rejection of a US-proposed ceasefire to reopen the Strait of Hormuz amid an ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports that has spiked global energy prices. Recent escalations include Chinese and Iranian tankers challenging the blockade on April 14, Israeli airstrikes in the region, and fragile "productive" US-Iran talks overshadowed by mutual threats and no-confidence in de-escalation signals. Pakistan's proposal for a second round of negotiations offers a potential diplomatic off-ramp, though historical patterns of stalled indirect talks and proxy actions suggest prolonged stalemate barring major concessions or unilateral withdrawals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
市场开放时间： Mar 12, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
交易量
$42,055,491结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 12, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.Trader consensus heavily favors the Iran-Israel/US conflict persisting beyond near-term dates, with over 97% implied probability for resolution no earlier than December 31, driven by Iran's April 6 rejection of a US-proposed ceasefire to reopen the Strait of Hormuz amid an ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports that has spiked global energy prices. Recent escalations include Chinese and Iranian tankers challenging the blockade on April 14, Israeli airstrikes in the region, and fragile "productive" US-Iran talks overshadowed by mutual threats and no-confidence in de-escalation signals. Pakistan's proposal for a second round of negotiations offers a potential diplomatic off-ramp, though historical patterns of stalled indirect talks and proxy actions suggest prolonged stalemate barring major concessions or unilateral withdrawals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
交易量
$42,055,491结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 12, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors the Iran-Israel/US conflict persisting beyond near-term dates, with over 97% implied probability for resolution no earlier than December 31, driven by Iran's April 6 rejection of a US-proposed ceasefire to reopen the Strait of Hormuz amid an ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports that has spiked global energy prices. Recent escalations include Chinese and Iranian tankers challenging the blockade on April 14, Israeli airstrikes in the region, and fragile "productive" US-Iran talks overshadowed by mutual threats and no-confidence in de-escalation signals. Pakistan's proposal for a second round of negotiations offers a potential diplomatic off-ramp, though historical patterns of stalled indirect talks and proxy actions suggest prolonged stalemate barring major concessions or unilateral withdrawals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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